By Wellsaint
January 9 2004

Happy New Year and welcome back to the Betting Preview. And a busy week it is too, with 12 Heineken Cup matches to sort out. Best get on with it then.... Heineken Cup Betting Preview - Round 3, Group Stage
Matches played on Friday 9, Saturday 10, Sunday 11 January

Overview

Very few good bets this week, and the weather could be a factor, with
another belt of wind/rain expected this weekend.

Pool One

#18 Gwent Dragons v #23 Stade Francais

Stade are having an indifferent season, whilst, despite their off-field
financial problems, the Dragons are riding high in the Celtic League.
My initial thoughts were that Stade should win this by 8 (indeed, the
handicap line from the bookmakers is exactly that!) - but, looking at
recent form rather than reputation, perhaps the call should be the
Dragons to either win or get a losing bonus point (effectively what
they would have to do for the bet to be a winner). More a percentage
than a confident call - Dragons with the points.

#4 Ulster v #29 Leicester

You're having a bad, bad season. You've just lost at home (again).
So, what does the fixture list throw up for you now? A trip to Ravenhill,
that's what. Ulster haven't lost at home in this competition, and I
can't see that changing on Sunday. Most bookmakers have Ulster as 3
point favourites - they should beat the line, although not by far - I
suspect Leicester may get a valuable losing bonus point. Ulster by 6.


Pool Two

#10 Edinburgh v #25 Leeds

Who'd of thought it? Edinburgh, top after beating Toulouse at home and
winning away at the Ospreys. This should be three out of three - Leeds
seem to be blowing hot and cold at the moment (mostly cold, it has to
be said). Edinburgh should win this, the only question being whether
Leeds keep it close enough to gain a losing bonus point. The bookies
lines vary between 7 and 11 points in favour of Edinburgh - and they
look about right. Not much of a betting angle, therefore.

#5 Toulouse v #24 Neath Swansea Ospreys

Toulouse are 22 to 25 point favourites and can be expected to beat the
Ospreys who are struggling this season. The percentage call is backing
Toulouse to win by more than 25, although, again, I feel this is close
to the mark.


Pool Three

#3 Leinster v #20 Sale

Leinster should be too good for a Sale side whose only consistency is
their inconsistency. Leinster are rated 12 to 15 point favs by the
bookies. But again, this looks close to the mark, and I swerve this
game as well.

#15 Biarritz v #35 Cardiff

I doubt we'll see the trycount of last year(!) but I take Biarritz to
easily account for a very poor Cardiff side. Bookies line is Biarritz
to win by 24-25, and, weather permitting, this should be well within
their compass.


Pool Four

#11 Llanelli v #24 Agen

The other game in our group and I take Llanelli to consolidate their lead
at the top of the group. The bookies line is Llanelli to win between 9 and
14 points - I think the double figure counts may be a little high. A
percentage call - but if you can get Agen with a 12 or 14 point start, this
could be a good bet (assuming no-one hits the road, Jacques, and is told not
to come back, no more, no more....)

#9 SAINTS v #40 Borders

Saints will be looking to take maximum points from this tie, which is, on paper
at least, the easiest tie of the group stage. The bookmakers seem to agree, and
have Northampton as .... wait for it.... 31 to 34 point favourites! Now, I have
a problem with this - my "upper quartile" theory - that is to say, Saints will have
to play at the top of their game, and Borders to play near to the bottom of theirs,
for this bet to be successful. Because, whilst I predict an easy win, say by 20
points, I think a 34 point win is somewhat unlikely. Consider the evidence. We are
STILL playing University Challenge rugby (giving starters for 10 points - anyone
got any idea how many games this season we have been 10-0 down in inside the first
quarter? It's a lot, I'm sure). The weather forecast is not favourable (can't imagine
the pitch will be anything other than heavy - and, if the rain arrives overnight or
tomorrow, we could be looking at the same conditions as we played in against Leicester.
I seriously couldn't believe this handicap line - and therefore the bet has to be
Borders with the massive start.


Pool Five

#39 Treviso v #13 Bourgoin

Bourgoin are between 5 and 8 point favourites. I would suggest that this may be
a little light - I take Bourgoin to win by 10.

#6 Gloucester v #8 Munster

Definitely one for the video as Gloucester and Munster get it on again. Gloucester
continue to go well, particularly at Kingsholm; Munster are having an in and out season
judging by their Celtic League placing. I take Gloucester to win a close game, possibly
by as little as two points. The bookies give Munster a three point start, and I think
that, once again, they are in the ballpark - so another swerve.


Pool Six

#14 Perpignan v #42 Calvisano

Perpignan are 29 to 32 point favourites. Difficult to know quite what to advise - again,
this looks about right - if forced to call, I'd back Calvisano to lose by less than 30 -
but it would be very much a percentage call.

#1 Wasps v #19 Celtic Warriors

Wasps, firing on all cylinders, welcome Celtic Warriors to the Causeway. The Warriors are
having an indifferent season, and the bookies have Wasps as 16 point favourites. Provided
that the weather doesn't affect the game unduly, I'd take Wasps to win by 25. Therefore
Wasps would be a confident bet.


Summary:

Best bets are Wasps -16, Ulster -3, Borders +34, Bourgoin -5, Agen +14

Good luck with your bets this weekend.

Wellsaint