By Chris Gleadell
January 30 2004

Moving into the last weekend of group games we look into the possible pool and trophy winners in this years Heineken European Cup. Will Toulouse repeat last years feat or are ther dark horses on the horizon? (That would be dark with a falsh of Gold and Green?) All prices 11:00am UK time, they may of course fluctuate.

THE POOLS

As we are in the final week of group matches I have looked at the prices for winning the individual pools where value looks greater rather than the individual games.

Pool A

It’s a two horse race with Tigers playing Stade Francais at Welford Road tonight.
Can Tigers turn their season around? The bookies seem to think so with a current best price of 4/9, with the Tote, on the stripey ones winning their group. Best price for the French is 9/4 (Paddy Power) may be worth a small punt if you think the Tigers still flatter to deceive but I would take them to edge this one although the prohibitive odds and their topsy turvy form means I’m taking a bargepole to this betting wise.

Pool B

Toulouse are quite rightly long odds on for this one in France at best price 1/7 (Ladbrokes), with Edinburgh at 6/1 (Totalbet). Stade, while never really firing on all cylinders yet, have just done enough week in week out to edge into the quarters while Edinburgh are already in the last eight. I expect Toulouse to step on a gear here on in and be there or there abouts come the end of competition. Price however means no bet.

Pool C

At last something to get our teeth into. You can evens on both Biarritz (Tote) and Leinster (Ladbrokes). The loss of Brian O’Driscoll make Leinster look a completely different side and they struggled to overcome Cardiff last week. Biarritz however look like they may be coming into form at the right time winning at Sale last week and home advantage should tell.
Double your money by backing the Basque side to win the group.

Pool D

In the game of the week at the Gardens its Saints v Scarlets head to head, winner takes all. Best price Northampton is 1/2 Ladbrokes while you can get 2/1 Llanelli. The Saints should carry on from last week and win this one but never underestimate the Welsh side who still have it all to prove in the Heineken Cup after several near misses over recent years. I’m taking the home side to edge this one though (surprise surprise) to move into the last eight.

Pool E
A bit of a no brainer this one, the top two sides should pick up five points this week and both will progress. Best price Munster is 1/6 (Paddy Power) which looks a steal if you are a big punter but the 5/1 (Ladbrokes) about Gloucester edging the group is good money down the drain.

Pool F

An interesting one this, three sides can in theory still qualify. Wasps hold the whip hand being currently four pints clear as they travel to Catalonia to play Perpignan.
The English side are best priced at 8/15 (Tote) to win the group with Perpignan 11/2 (Bet365) and the Celtic Warriors 3/1 (Ladbrokes). I cannot see Wasps throwing it away in the south of France, even if they lose I cannot see them coming away with at least a bonus point and I cannot really see them conceding four tries to the Catalans.
It could all come down to Warriors game at Calvisano where if Wasps do slip up they could nip in with a four try victory. I’m taking Wasps to stay level headed and in touch to progress.

So heres my final six of pool winners.

Leicester
Toulouse
Biarritz
Northampton
Munster
Wasps

Gloucester and Edinburgh to complete the final eight.

TO WIN THE WHOLE CABOODLE

Of course prices may well have changed by Sunday when the last eight becomes clearer but Toulouse are a solid 100/30 (Skybet) to win the cup again while Munster 7/2 (Billy Hill) and Wasps 11/2 (SportingOdds) close in. Saints best price is 10/1 (Coral) coming in from 25/1 a week ago. The 12 to 20/1 brings in Tigers, Gloucester, Llanelli, Biarritz and Leinster with 40/1 bar these.

As I mentioned earlier Toulouse are playing well below their potential and are still winning. They still look the team to beat however the next round of games will be in April when conditions could be much improved (although you never know nowadays) and the like of Northampton who were running in tries by the dozen on the firm ground could come into play, a win on Sunday could mean a home tie in the QF, grab that 10/1 while you can.