By Mark H
October 7 2004

One of my favourite songs has a line in it that goes "Cause a deep down low makes level feel so high". Surely after last Saturday, Saints have now hit that low. If not, Saracens and a long winter await from Sunday at 3pm.

The Sky cameras have opted to show what I would have thought they anticipated to be a near top of the table clash on Sunday afternoon; little were they to know that by kick off, they could be watching ninth versus eighth with both teams desperate to break their own three game losing streaks and start to get their seasons at least heading for the rails again. Sarries have once again flattered to deceive, beating Wasps 13-11 at Twickenham on the first weekend, then getting past Worcester 16-10 at home on the second. At that point, it didn't matter about the style of rugby, it was winning rugby.

Since then, however, the new squad put together in the close season at Vicarage Road (and it's good to know that there's some phrases you can use year after year) has hit the wall big-style. Defeats at Sale and London Irish, sandwiching a home defeat to Leeds, has meant that any optimism about the start of the season has all but evaporated. When you look at the squad, as is the case for Saints, you can turn around and wonder what has gone wrong. New signings such as Hugh Vyvyan, Alex Sanderson, Kevin Yates, Dan Scarbrough and the like have added to a base containing Richard Hill, Kyran Bracken, Taine Randell, and the maestro that is Thomas Castaignede, and should (in theory) have had a great impact.

The firework, however, that many had hoped would rocket the men in black to the higher regions of the Premiership has turned out to be the same old Catherine wheel that they've had for the last few seasons. Sanderson is a long-term injury victim; Hill is missing, possibly for the rest of the season. Both are big misses. Tenth place in the Premiership for his continued investment would have hurt Nigel Wray, and there must be rumblings that the age old Sarries problem - high squad turnover looking to repeat the cup success (or better) of 1999 - is not the best way to get results. Rod Kafer and Steve Diamond have a tricky task in getting rid of the Catherine wheel and turning it into the rocket.

Sarries do have, however, an excellent record against Saints at the Vicarage. In seven Premiership meetings there, Saints have won just twice, a Pat Lam inspired effort in December 2000 (30-10), and last season's scrambled success (or if you're a Sarries supporter, stitch-up) by 22-18, with Oriol Ripol looking on video to have killed the ball a yard from his own line in the closing seconds, only for referee Steve Leyshon to call for a scrum and then blow the final whistle. Cue cacophony of booing, massive amounts of vitriol in the following week's programme, and a six week touchline ban for Kafer.

This time round, the man known as Dave is looking for his team to step up and put right the wrongs of last season. There’s pace in the backs, with the electric-haired Richard Haughton, Robbie Kydd and Paul Bailey, but there does seem to be a problem in the fly-half position. Kafer’s plan for the season was to play Castaignede at outside centre, the position the Frenchman has stated he prefers, but it leaves him with a choice of Nicky Little or ex-Saint Ben Russell in the ten shirt. Little’s kicking arguably lost last season’s match, missing two kicks from straightforward range, and Russell has only played forty minutes in the Premiership, the first half of last Sunday’s game. Whoever is chosen in that role will have to be targeted, in the same way that Sarries will no doubt be targeting Shane Drahm.

The injury to Hill (a massive blow for the best English back row forward in many years) will force a reshuffle in the pack, with captain Hugh Vyvyan probably dropping out of the second row to number eight with Randell moving to blindside, Academy graduate David Seymour completing the back row. (Of course, once the Sarries team is announced on Friday, this is probably all going to be completely contradicted).

Solly, after his anger (and he wasn’t the only one) at last week’s defeat, has made one change to the starting line-up, John Clarke coming in for John Rudd. It’s an interesting move; there could have been more changes as the gameplan obviously went pear-shaped on Saturday, and it also leaves Saints with two out and out wingers (with not the best kicking games) on the bench. If things are going wrong, then there may have to be major reshuffles to accommodate replacements. It also means that for all of the current problems with Saints, only 25 men have pulled on a first team shirt this season (Paul Grayson, Ben Jones and Chris Budgen being the three outside Sunday‘s squad). Does that signal a lack of strength in depth, an unshakeable faith in his men, or or an unwillingness to try something different? The team:-

15 Bruce Reihana
14 Wylie Human
13 Mark Tucker
12 Marc Stcherbina
11 John Clarke
10 Shane Drahm
9 Mark Robinson
1 Tom Smith
2 Steve Thompson
3 Robbie Kempson
4 Selborne Boome
5 Matt Lord
6 Darren Fox
7 Corne Krige (captain)
8 Andrew Blowers

16 Dan Richmond
17 Robbie Morris
18 Damien Browne
19 Grant Seely
20 Johnny Howard
21 Ben Cohen
22 John Rudd

Referee for Sunday is Roy Maybank. Which probably means that you shouldn’t plan anything until after 6pm.

I felt no pleasure in getting last week’s result right, mainly because I changed my mind for the prediction league. This week, I have to go for a Saints win, simply because Sarries, like Wasps, are injury hit. Sarries, unlike Wasps, aren’t the reigning European champions. It won’t be by much, but an away success has to happen. We’re not quite drinking in the last chance saloon yet as far as play-off rugby is concerned, but the landlord is preparing to open the doors.

We, supporters, players and coaches, must NOT be sucked in.