By Wellsaint
January 12 2005

I believe it was Limerick's finest, The Cranberries, who released the album "Everyone Else Is Doing It - Why Shouldn't We?" On that basis, here's my analysis of the potential make up of the Heineken Cup Quarter Finals - again featuring Limerick's finest (Munster, not the Cranberries...) Having looked at the pools, I can now make a stab at predicting the make-up of the quarter finals. To get to that stage of course, the results of all the games must be predicted first:

Pool One

Currently: Biarritz 18, Wasps 15, Leicester 14, Calvisano nil

Predicted results:

Biarritz to beat Wasps (no try bonus), Wasps to get losing BP, Leicester to get win plus try bonus from Calvisano.

Predicted final table:

BIARRITZ 22 - Leicester 19 - Wasps 16 - Calvisano nil


Pool Two

As good as over.

Currently: Leinster 21, Treviso 14, Bath 11, Bourgoin 1

Predicted results: Leinster to win and get the try bonus v Treviso: the other game?
Doesn't matter a jot - Bourgoin to win, just, maybe, possibly.

Predicted final table:

LEINSTER 26 - Treviso 14 - Bath 12, Bourgoin 5


Pool Three

Currently:

Toulouse 19, Saints 16, Llanelli 12, Glasgow 2

Predicted results: Saints to beat Glasgow and score four tries in the process, Toulouse to beat Llanelli easily.

Predicted final table:

TOULOUSE 24 - Saints 21 - Llanelli 12 - Glasgow 2


Pool Four

Currently: Munster 18, Castres 16, Ospreys 10, Harlequins 3

Predicted results:

Munster to do something fairly nasty to Quins; Castres to beat the Ospreys (no bonus point)

Predicted final table:

MUNSTER 23, Castres 20, Ospreys 10, Harlequins 3


Pool Five

Currently: Newcastle 17, Newport 15, Perpignan 15, Edinburgh 2

Predicted results:

Newcastle to beat Newport (4 point Newcastle, 1 point Newport) - Perpignan to beat
Edinburgh with a maximum 5 point haul.

Predicted final table:

NEWCASTLE 21 - Perpignan 20 - Newport 16 - Edinburgh 2


Pool Six

Currently: Stade Francais 19, Gloucester 14, Ulster 12, Cardiff 3

Predicted results: Gloucester to beat Stade Francais but not by enough to top the group. Ulster unlikely to be involved in the shake up even if they beat Cardiff - I take Cardiff to win, narrowly.

Predicted final table:

STADE FRANCAIS 19, Gloucester 18, Ulster 13, Cardiff 7


This would result in the following seeds 1-6:

1 LEINSTER
2 TOULOUSE
3 MUNSTER
4 BIARRITZ
5 NEWCASTLE
6 STADE FRANCAIS

The tightest seeding I think is at 3/4, where if Biarritz get a try bonus against Wasps they would take the third seeding, as they have a better try count.


The runners-up - first runner up

Assuming that Saints win, with the bonus point, then we should be clear 7th seeds. Not getting the bonus point and we could be in dangerous territory if Castres and Perpignan both win, in the case of Perpignan with a maximum five points. The most likely scenario is that we do the necessary on Friday night, or that other results
mean that 20 points is sufficient to take the best runner up spot. Therefore:

7 NORTHAMPTON


Second runner up

I don't think that there will be two qualifiers from Pool One as I think 20 points will be necessary for a runners-up spot. Leicester can only get to 19, and will need other results to go their way to get the other spot. Treviso could theoretically progress from Pool 2 but would have to take maximum points at home against the only unbeaten side in the competition, Leinster. We've established the likely outcome of Pool Three.

So where do we look for the other qualifier? Well, Pool Six is similar to Pool One in that I cannot see 19 points being enough to get through. So we must look to Pools Four and Five for the second and final runner-up slot. The most likely candidates are therefore Castres or Perpignan.

Castres potentially have the better chance; an away game against an Ospreys side with nothing left to play for except pride. The advantage they have over Perpignan is two fold; firstly, if Castres were to win, and get no bonus point, they would be on 20 points. Perpignan would have to score four tries or more to get a five point haul to bring them to 20 points. But a check of the try count reveals that Castres have scored 15 tries to Perpignan's 13, so even if Perpignan were to get a maximum point haul, they would also need to score two more tries than Castres. On that basis, I take Castres as the more likely qualifier in 8th and last place.

8 CASTRES


This therefore would result in the following quarter finals:

1 LEINSTER v 8 CASTRES
2 TOULOUSE v 7 NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
3 MUNSTER v 6 STADE FRANCAIS
4 BIARRITZ v 5 NEWCASTLE


Another trip to Toulouse? That'd be a crying shame, wouldn't it?!

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Gentle warning, dear readers:

The above could prove, and probably will be proven, to be a complete load of old tosh. Therefore please don't book any accommodation/flights on the basis of the above!!

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