By Wellsaint
February 6 2005

And after the excitement of the Cup, it's... the excitement of the Cup. This week, we turn our thoughts to the Powergen Cup and the four quarter finals. Two teams are, potentially, only 160 minutes away from a Twickenham final. I will look at the games in the order they will be played. Sale v Bath

Sale come to this game on the back of a narrow loss in Agen in the European Challenge Cup, although they won the tie over the two legs. They face a Bath side who beat Bourgoin in France last weekend but are out of the Heineken Cup after a somewhat disappointing campaign.Bath's injury list has been well chronicled this season and they lie 5th in the Premiership two places below Sale. Edgeley Park is never an easy place to win, and I think Sale go into this game in better form. I take Sale to win this by nine points.

Gloucester v Bristol (live on BBC One West, West Midlands and South West -
SKY 949/956/957)

Originally this game was to be shown live across the country. That was before Wasps were thrown out of the competition for fielding an ineligible player in their extra time win at Bristol in the last round. In its place we have a potentially fascinating West Country local derby, and full credit should be given to the BBC for showing this game in the West Country. The only problem with showing it in the West Midlands is that you don't need to go very far west from Northampton before you get to the coverage area of the West Midlands transmitter - and so therefore, potentially, viewers in the far west of the county could end up seeing the
"wrong" match! (There are a few tickets left for Franklin's tomorrow, I believe...)

Gloucester come into this game in something of a poor run of form - nilled at home by Stade Francais, and beaten at Ravenhill by Ulster. Bristol are in a fine run of form and are top of National League One. Is there any chance of an upset? I think that the game could be quite close but I would take Gloucester to win by five points.

Northampton v Leeds (live in all other BBC One Regions)

A rematch of the Premiership clash (in every sense of the word) three weeks ago in which Saints won 18-9 in the worst refereed game it has been my misfortune to witness for many a long year. Saints go into this on the back of qualifying for another crack at Toulouse in the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup whilst Leeds qualifyed easily for the semi finals of their European competition where they face Worcester over two legs. I thought that Leeds looked a very limited side that day, and that their tactics seemed to be taking the laws of the game to their absolute limits, and in some cases, quite a distance beyond them. I will go further still; it would not surprise me in the slightest if Leeds were to be in 12th place
at the end of the Premiership season. But Saints being Saints, they'll probably put us through the mill... Saints by fourteen.

Saracens v London Irish

Seventh plays eighth in the Premiership and this is a very tricky game to call. Sarries just lost out in extra time against Brive whilst Irish haven't played since the start of the New Year. Sarries appear to be running into form under Steve Diamond, and this, together with home advantage and the fact that Irish may be rusty after their two week layoff, means I side with Sarries by six.

And now, for something completely different....


Those of you who follow American Football will know that we are now at the Conference Championship stage of the season. Two teams are one game away from appearing in Superbowl XXXIX in Jacksonville on February 6th. Usually, by this stage, all value has gone from the betting. This year, I believe that there is an exception.

Pittsburgh were (when I checked on Wednesday) 9/4 to win the Superbowl.

Consider the following: Pittsburgh were 15-1 during the regular season. Admittedly, they only scraped past the New York Jets last week, but the Jets are a fine team. On Sunday, they face a stiff test at home to New England who beat Indianapolis easily last week in truly awful conditions in Boston - a team from the South was always going to be at a significant disadvantage. Now, we have two northern sides getting it on - the team that's been there, done that, got the Superbowl rings, against the upcoming team who really look something special. You don't get to 15-1 without being a very exceptional side. I confidently predict Pittsburgh will be the AFC representative in the Superbowl.

The winner of this game will face either the Atlanta Falcons, or, more likely, the
Philadelphia Eagles, in the Superbowl. Bearing in mind Philly are the top seeds in the NFC, but are considered by most commentators to be the equivalent of the AFC's 4th or 5th seeds, such is the dominence of the AFC, I think that whoever wins the AFC game wins the Superbowl.

9/4 could seem a VERY big price by 3.00am on Monday morning.