By Wellsaint
August 31 2005

Another season, another sponsor: the competition is now known as the GUINNESS Premiership. It looks like all references to the sponsors are in block capitals - that's Broonie bxxxxxxd, then...

The first week is (mostly) local derbies, with the exception of the game between Leeds and London Irish (if would, of course have been Harlequins, had results been different on the last day of last season.  Enough of that already.) 

It has been announced that there is to be a general crackdown on foul play on the field, with the expectation that here will be more red cards issued.  A thought: isn't that exactly what the football authorities are doing, with the result that around half the red cards are being overturned on appeal?  I think it's fair to say that I'm never one for passing up a chance to moan about referees - so here's a contriversial suggestion - if the referee gets it wrong, and issues a red card incorrectly, he should be banned from refereeing at the highest level for three months. (I remember when this was a preview. - Ed..) - yes, point taken.  Although if you could bet on where the first red card of the season is shown, where would you go for: Leicester?  Bristol?  Elsewhere?   

This week's games are harder than usual to assess; not only are they the first games of the season "proper" but it will be interesting to see how many Lions players end up taking the field this weekend, and for  how long.  So any stakes should be kept low; it's a long season, and there will be better opportunities along the way.  

Friday night's game

 

Sale v Newcastle 

Sale supplied many players to the Lions tour but the thought is that some of them at least may play a part in Friday's game.  For Newcastle, the big question (as ever!) concerns JW and his fitness.  Regardless of who eventually ends up taking the field, I think Sale will prove too good for Newcastle and I expect them to win by around ten points.  I also think that at the prices available, Sale are the best bet to top the league at the end of the regular season - 13/2 is available in places  (if you can get a quarter of the odds for second and third places, this represents as solid an each-way bet as you are likely to find anywhere - albeit you will have to wait around eight months to draw!)

 Saturday afternoon's games

 Leicester v Northampton (beamback at Franklin's Gardens, £5 admission)

Hardly the easiest start to the season for Saints but you have to meet them sometime!  The tickets for this game sold out very quickly, but there is a beamback facility available at Franklin's Gardens for those who haven't secured tickets for this game.  For Tigers, the question will be how many of their Lions players take the field and for how long; for Saints supporters, it will be a first chance to see Carlos Spencer in a competitive league game, as well as the other new signings made over the summer.  I'd like to predict a Saints win (in fact, I feel it more likely that we win this week than next at Bath) but wearing my realistic hat if we take anything from the game it will be a bonus.  It's very difficult to predict the margin without knowing the likely line-ups but I take Tigers to win this by around ten points. 

Leeds v London Irish (at Twickenham)

 London Irish are predicted to be in for another tough season whilst Leeds appear to have recruited well (Justin Marshall in particular) and will be looking to climb up the table this term.  With the change in venue home advantage has been negated - if this game had been at Headingley I would have made Leeds favourites by less than a score.  As it is... a close game - and I take Irish to just sneak home by two points.   

Wasps v Saracens (at Twickenham)

Wasps are going for their fourth title on the bounce and in the first week meet a Saracens side of whom much is expected this season (hang on, we've written this several times before, I believe...)  Again, with no real "home" advantage, a tricky one to call - another close game in prospect - and the added problem of whether Wasps will play any Lions, or not... hmmm... Risky call - Sarries by four.

Sunday's games - both live on Sky TV

Worcester v Gloucester

Worcester, who surprised many (but not me) when they survived in the Premiership last season meet Gloucester, who seemed to lose their way quite alarmingly in the latter stages of the season.  Worcester will, once more, win their share at home and run many a good side close away as well.  It's difficult to know what to make of Gloucester - but I find it hard to believe they'll be struggling for very long! That said, I think Worcester may well edge this - if only by three points.

Bristol v Bath

A warm welcome back to the Premiership for Bristol, who, along with Irish, are most people's relegation fancies for the season (guess it's that old thing of the promoted team having it all to prove.)  And Bath will provide an early, and tough, test of their credentials.  It's difficult to see this as anything other than an away win, and I take Bath to win by twelve points. 

How to use the above: 

With it being only Wednesday, there are no handicap odds available yet on the weekend's games.  Basically if the bookies' handicap line is the same as my own or very close to it I tend not to bet on that game; whereas if there is a little "air" in the price I'm  more inclined to bet. Using the Worcester-Gloucester game as an example, if the following were offered:  

10/11 Worcester -3 points 10/11 Gloucester +3 points 16/1 Draw -

I would either not have a bet (as the handicap line is the same as mine) or have a SMALL single bet on the draw, just in case!!  

However... if the following were offered:

10/11 Worcester +2 points 10/11 Gloucester -2 points 16/1 Draw -

I would then consider Worcester a solid bet, as not only do I think Worcester will win, but if they draw or lose by only one point, I still win money!  

The only prices available are for the GUINNESS Premiership Outright (positions at the end of the regular season.)  The best prices available at the time of writing (11.00 am Wednesday 31 August) are:

9/4 Wasps, 3/1 Leicester, 13/2 Sale, 15/2 Saracens, 12/1 SAINTS, 14/1 Gloucester,

14/1 Bath, 25/1 Newcastle, 33/1 Leeds, 66/1 Irish, 150/1 Worcester, 200/1 Bristol.

 

That's it for week one then: now, do they sell Guinness (sorry, GUINNESS) at Welford Road?  And do they have a nice long bar with plenty of pre-poured pints?  

Until next week.