By Wellsaint
October 19 2005

Firstly, a brief word on the format: five pools of four teams, winner to qualify from each pool plus the three best runners up. Quarter and semi finals at home venues; final on a neutral ground.

European Challenge Cup Pool Previews

 

 

 

Pool One

 

Bristol, Narbonne, Saints, Viadana

 

Assuming that everyone takes points off Viadana (possibly a dangerous assumption!) I think two teams can qualify for the quarter-finals from this group.  The obvious two are Saints and Narbonne and wearing my optimistic hat, I take Saints to top the pool with Narbonne in second.  Bristol will provide a test, but they appear to have gone off the boil as of late, and for this reason, I predict a Saints-Narbonne one-two.

 

Pool Two

 

London Irish, Parma, Pau, Agen

 

I think this is a pool in which only the winner will qualify for the next stage, and with Pau at the bottom of the Top 14 and London Irish looking to be an extremely average side, I take Agen to top the pool, although they will have to watch their discipline.

Pool Three

 

Bayonne, Bucharest, Gloucester, Toulon

 

Gloucester are favourites to win this competition and they should win this pool fairly comfortably.  This is a pool from which I think two teams can qualify, and I think that Bayonne may well pip Toulon for second place in the pool, although neither side are setting the Top 14 alight, hence my prediction that Gloucester top the pool.

Pool Four

 

Borders, Brive, L'Aquila, Newcastle

 

This pool looks like a straight fight between Newcastle and Brive as to who will top

the pool; I take Newcastle to just edge Brive, but both to qualify for the next stage

of the competition.

 

Pool Five

 

Catania, Connacht, Montpelier, Worcester

 

Possibly the most competitive group and certainly one which I think will only provide one qualifier for the latter stages.  Worcester have impressed me this season and I think they may well top the group, although I think that Montpelier may well push them hard.  If Connacht can get some away wins, they may also have a say in who wins the group.

 

Predicted group winners: Saints, Agen, Gloucester, Newcastle, Worcester

Also to qualify for the next stage: Narbonne, Bayonne, Brive

 

Betting odds (best prices as at 14.45 Wednesday 19 October)

 

3/1 Gloucester

11/2 SAINTS

7/1 Agen, Newcastle

10/1 Brive

12/1 Narbonne

16/1 London Irish, Montpelier

20/1 Worcester

25/1 and upwards all others

 

Although there are four less teams in this competition, due to the fact that there will be a draw for the quarter-finals (I believe I'm right?) this makes the competition less easy to predict, as if this is the case, there is less of an advantage to winning the  group easily.  It's more likely that this competition could have an English winner, as the French sides in the competition are all in the lower reaches of the Top 14 (still not sure I fancy Agen much!) but I think the market is right in putting Gloucester and Saints as favourites.  Although the 11/2 is hardly value, Saints must have a realistic chance of going a long way in this competition.  Of the French sides, 7/1 about Agen is the most tempting, as they are extremely hard to beat at home.  For a more speculative punt, the 20/1 about Worcester could be interesting, assuming they can get out of a hard pool and into the knockout stages.