By Wellsaint
October 21 2005

Wellsaint takes his weekly look at the forthcoming fixtures. This weekend all eyes turn to Europe with the start of both the Heineken Cup and the European Challenge Cup.

HEINEKEN CUP – ROUND ONE

FRIDAY'S GAMES

Sale v Munster

Sale are the English side fancied by many to go the furthest in this tournament and they will be looking to get off to a flyer against Munster at Edgeley Park.
Sale beat Wasps at home last week and should get a similar result against Munster tonight - I take Sale to win by nine.


Ulster v Treviso

Ulster's home record in this competition is impressive and I can't see any other result than an Ulster win - predicted margin of victory fifteen points.


Bourgoin v Glasgow

In predicting Bourgoin's matches this year I am trusting that they will be trying this year (some of the scores last year were, shall we be benevolent, strange) -
and with Bourgoin riding high in the Top 14, Glasgow will be looking to limit the
damage. Another home win, I take Bourgoin to win by twenty-five points.



SATURDAY'S GAMES

Cardiff v Leeds

The games between these sides will in all probability decide who finishes second in Pool Two. Whilst Cardiff haven't been setting the world alight, Leeds haven't beaten anyone all season and have only just recorded their first losing bonus point in the Premiership.  I take Cardiff to win this by eight.


Calvisano v Perpignan

Perpignan will be looking for a maximum five point haul and they should get it - USAP to win by 20.


Leicester v Clermont

Leicester go into this game with a weakened scrum with Rowntree out and White
suspended for his part in Fight Night last week.  Leicester need to win this game to stand any realistic chance in this group.  I think they will win (just) - but I think Clermont will give them a real fright - Leicester by only two.


Toulouse v Llanelli

Llanelli's record of qualifying for the knockout stages of the competition won't be
helped by being placed in the same pool as Toulouse and Wasps. Realistically Toulouse will be too good for Llanelli and I take Toulouse to win by twenty points.


Leinster v Bath

Is there an unwritten rule that says that these sides must meet in the Heineken every year?  With home advantage, I think Leinster will have the edge, although I think it may be a closer game than in previous years - Leinster by six.


Castres v Dragons

Having seen the Dragons a couple of weeks ago I thought they were woeful. On that performance, it's hard to see them getting anywhere near Castres, who won all of their pool games at home last season.  Castres by twenty-two.


SUNDAY'S GAMES

Edinburgh v Wasps

Like Llanelli, Edinburgh have been unfortunate in the draw for this season's competition but it should be remembered that Edinburgh have managed to claim notable scalps at home before (notably Toulouse.)  Having said that, I think Wasps should be able to come back south with the victory by a margin of ten points.


Ospreys v Stade Francais

I am told that the Ospreys are the best side in Wales at present.  They will certainly have an opportunity to see just how good they are in the general scheme of things on Sunday.  Stade Francais are one of those sides who seem to score at will, but they have lost their share on the road.  Even so, I think the class of Stade will out, and that they will win by twelve.


Saracens v Biarritz

An important game for Sarries - one which they will need to win to stand any realistic chance of progressing to the next round.  Biarritz are joint-favourites to win the tournament outright and I can't see Saracens managing to beat them on Sunday - my call is Biarritz by eight.

 

 
SELECTED EUROPEAN CHALLENGE CUP GAMES

Saints v Viadana

An important game for Saints and one in which four tries are a MUST. Viadana are going well in the Italian league but Saints have a strong side out for this and must be considered very strong favourites.  Saints to win by thirty.


Narbonne v Bristol

Narbonne and Bristol are near the bottom of their respective leagues, but with home advantage, I think Narbonne will win with something to spare - Narbonne by 18.


In Pool Two, Pau, currently bottom of the Top 14, should be able to beat a London Irish side that really don't look anything out of the ordinary - Pau to win by ten. In the other game in the group, Agen should get maximum points against Parma and I take Agen to win by eighteen. 

In Pool Three, Gloucester travel to Bayonne, and with the club-imposed suspensions on Henry Paul and Peter Richards I just think this may make this game a very close one - I take Bayonne to win by two points. 

 

In Pool Four, I think the winner will come from the two Newcastle-Brive games, and I think Newcastle will edge ahead in this group by beating Brive, although I think Brive will get one point from the game as Newcastle win by seven.  Finally, in what could be the decisive pairing in Pool Five, I take Worcester to beat Montpelier at Sixways by ten points.



BETTING

Firstly, some movers in the outright markets:

Perpignan are now a best-priced 10/1 to lift the Heineken Cup.

In the European Challenge Cup, Saints have been shaved to 5/1, whilst Agen are now a best priced 8/1 (from 7/1)

The details on the match betting for this weekend's games is that for most of the games the bookmakers' handicap line is within three points of my own, and therefore, in my opinion, there are very few good bets to be had.

Tonight's best bet may be to back Treviso with a 24 point start – although Ulster may be able to beat that with some ease, they've never been a side that's run in a lot of tries, and the weather can often play a part at Ravenhill.  Definitely not a maximum bet, though!!  The other two games are way, way too tight to play.

Looking at tomorrow, and the number "13" looms large for me – taking Perpignan to beat Calvisano by more than 13, and Clermont to win or keep the losing margin below 13 at Welford Road.  Castres giving up 18 at home to the Dragons is also a possible punt, but doesn't look as good value-wise as the others.  The other three games are again too tight to offer value.

On Sunday, the only bet I'd be interested in is Biarritz giving five points to Saracens. The other two games are right on the money for me, and are therefore avoided.


At the time of writing, there were no odds available for the matches in the Challenge Cup.