By Wellsaint
December 9 2005

It's a return to Europe this weekend for the Premiership teams. Wellsaint weighs up the betting in both Euro competitions.

 

Heineken Cup

Friday's games

Castres v Sale - Sale have won both games in their group but face a stern test away at Castres.  It looks as if the injury and illness crisis that affected Sale last week (assuming that this was the case, and they weren't just resting players for the Anglo-Welsh Cup; you can never quite be sure!) Castres won last week against Bayonne in the French League, picking up a bonus point in the process.  Castres by ten is the pick.

Ulster v Saracens - Ulster at home at Ravenhill on a Friday night - enough said, really.  Sarries' form is very in-and-out this season (and some have criticised their tactics, suggesting that they have a limited game-plan.)  As do Ulster; but theirs seems to be win your home games. I take Ulster to win by 8.

Saturday's games

Newport Gwent Dragon v Munster - Newport tend to do well at home and won both their Anglo Welsh Cup games at Rodney Parade with something to spare.  They need a win here to keep up any realistic chance of qualification for the next stage and I think they may well prevail by four points.  

Calvisano v Cardiff - The highlight of this game will surely be the return of Jonah Lomu to the rugby field after a long lay-off for injury.  As for the result - Cardiff may well be pushed quite hard by Calvisano, but I see a Welsh victory by nine points.

Clermont v Stade Francais - Trivia fact - this is the first time that two French sides have met each other in the pool stages of the Heineken Cup.  In what is arguably the tightest pool at present in the whole competition, home wins will be vital.  I think, however, that Stade may have the edge, and I take them to win by four.

Leinster v Bourgoin - How expensive will Leinster's late loss to Bath in Dublin be at the end of this group? Certainly, a repeat loss will make progress for the Irish province difficult, if not impossible.  Bourgoin beat Clermont in the French league last week where they lie in a handy position but I think home advantage means advantage Leinster by nine points.

Bath v Glasgow - Students of Guinness Premiership rugby may find this hard to fathom but Bath are currently top of their pool, having beaten Leinster away and taken a bonus point win at home against Bourgoin (yes, that's right - Bath scored four tries!)  And they may well repeat the dose this weekend as Glagow visit the Rec.  Prediction - Bath by 18.

Edinburgh v Toulouse - Lightning couldn't strike in the same place twice, could it?  Surely Toulouse will win this game?  Well, you wouldn't care to put the mortgage on - Toulouse lost last weekend in a tight game against Brive.  I think that it will be an away win but it could be mighty, mighty close - Toulouse by four.

Sunday's games

Leeds v Perpignan - A month ago, it would have been a question of "how far" - but then, Leeds got (relatively!) good - Midi Olympique has highlighted this as a potentially difficult game for Perpignan.  Hopefully Perpignan will prevail, not least because the Wellsaint fortunes are on them winning the whole thing, but I think it could be mighty close - Perpignan to prevail by six - I hope...

Leicester v Neath-Swansea Ospreys - Leicester, fresh from beating Saints in the Anglo-Welsh competition last week, face the Ospreys at Welford Road.  It is possible that Gavin Henson may return from injury in this match - the injury was reported as a groin strain, but I heard it was more a religious problem - he'd been spending too much time in Church (boom boom, back in the box Basil....)  Anyhow, Henson or no, Tigers to win by 12.

Biarritz v Treviso - Even taking into account the fact that Treviso are top of the Italian league, Biarritz are unlikely to find this unduly taxing and I take them to win by 22.

Llanelli v Wasps - Both sides won their games last weekend and in the process advanced to the semi-finals of the Anglo-Welsh Cup.  Stradey Park is never an easy place to get a result but that's precisely what Wasps need to do after taking only three points from their opening two matches.  In what is sure to be a tight game, I take Llanelli to win by three.

 

European Challenge Cup Previews

A brief overview only for this competition, as less bookmakers offer prices and the profile of the competition is that much lower.

In Pool One (our pool) Saints should be too strong for Narbonne at home - last week there were some signs of improvement, which if built upon should be enough to lead us to a victory in double figures.  In the other game in the group between Viadana and Bristol, it's hard to be sure how good Viadana actually are, as their game against Narbonne was fogged off half-way through - and how good Bristol really are is open to debate.  A close game, one which I'd want to watch rather than predict.  Predictions: Saints by 12, Viadana by 3.

In Pool Two, Pau are struggling in the French League whilst Parma are second in the Italian league.  Pau should win, but it could be close.  In the other game in the pool, London Irish will be looking to beat Agen prior to the return fixture next week. Predictions: Pau by seven, Irish by ten.

Pool Three sees Bucharest play Bayonne and Toulon entertain Gloucester.  Bayonne should win easily in Bucharest whilst Gloucester may well edge Toulon out.  Predictions: Bayonne by a lot (in excess of 50), Gloucester by five.

Pool Four sees L'Aqulia take on Newcastle whilst Border Reivers entertain Brive. Newcastle, despite their underwhelming season thus far, should beat L'Aqulia whilst the Borders may claim the scalp of Brive (the most dangerous thing on the field could be the referee, one Mr Barnes...)  Predictions: Newcastle by ten, Borders by five.

Pool Five brings Montpelier and Amatori Catania together whilst Worcester entertain Connacht.  Two home wins here I think:  Montpelier by 15, Worcester by 12.