England vs South Africa

Match Preview

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It has finally arrived. The time for excuses is over, no more "We are resting our experienced players after a long season". No more "We spent all week training very hard, and were surprised by a spirited USA team". Now is the time. Now we judge, on a level playing field, exactly how far England have fallen, or (and here the eternal optimist takes over) exactly how cunning Brian Ashton really is. This optimist has clung to the hope that Ashton has been keeping his powder dry over the past few months. The new depths plumbed by a truly awful performance against USA have led me to fear that he may simply not have any powder. How I hope to be proved wrong.

The clash with South Africa has probably dropped from being England's most important group game, to second place, replaced at the top with the later game against Samoa now seen by just about every observer as a straight fight for second place in the group. This game does though still have massive importance. Even if you expect defeat, the manner of that defeat could affect all that follows. I will, for now, cling to the hope that miracles do happen and that England can find a performance to make the Southern Hemisphere take some notice.

Here is a little method to my madness. South Africa is indeed a very strong, physical side, not short on pace and prepared to get into the hard graft. They do, however, suffer a similar problem to England on the creativity front, they tend to bludgeon sides into submission rather than cut them to pieces. One small plus point from recent England performances, assuming we disregard the latest aberration, is that defence has tightened. If England keeps making their tackles South Africa should not overrun us. The England pack is still pretty solid, some say enhanced by captain Vickery's enforced absence. Scrummaging should be fairly equal. Line-outs could be a challenge, the inclusion of Martin Corry could be bonus here (I don't believe I just wrote that). England will need to find some more cohesion in rucks and mauls, primarily in order to secure possession, then to ensure that at least some of that possession can be obtained before the South African defensive line has had time to set up camp, get their laundry done and finish that last chapter of ‘Long walk to freedom'. At whatever pace the forwards deliver possession, I don't expect to see too much of it spread amongst the back line, nor do I believe that doing so would be a good idea. The England backs have repeatedly shown a lack of ability to create space for themselves, knocking over a dispirited Welsh 3^rd XV hardly counts. South Africa have shown an ability to restrict even the most potent attacking forces. England must play to their relative strength, the forwards. It may be true that this is also South Africa's strength, but, again disregarding the last performance, England can just about win a forward battle with the Boks. It may not make for pretty Rugby, but then a battle between two strong evenly matched packs may well be a more edifying experience than watching two back lines, with the rapier edge of week old boerewors, batter into each other.

On to the teams

Front Row: I don't think South Africa are starting with their best, Os du Randt as still a powerful scrummager, but is not the force he once was. If the game is as tight as I expect, then he should have few problems, but if the English manage to get a little mobile, then he could struggle. A stronger Bok front row caused few problems for England's 2^nd/3^rd string tourists; I don't see this one causing many problems either.

2^nd Row: Botha and Matfield are possibly the best combination in World Rugby right now, great in the line-out and both pretty good at galloping around the park too. England's line-out throwing will need to be spot on, there is no such thing as banker 2 ball with this opposition. Martin Corry and even Nick Easter may see a lot of line-out work to keep the ball away from them.

Back Row: Here England have to keep it tight, they just don't have the pace to so anything else, Rees galloping off on his own will help no-one in a white shirt. Rossouw would also probably prefer to play tight, but Juan Smith is a different story, England will have to keep him shackled. The Burger ban has doubtless weakened the Bok back row, but I confess to not knowing enough about van Heerden to pass comment.

Scrum Half: Fourie du Preez has a shout at form Scrum Half in world rugby, Shaun Perry doesn't.

         Andy Farrell                                                              Mike Catt

Ashton said 13/9/07 both Catt and Andy Farrell would operate as inside backs, suggesting considerable interchanging between the 10 and 12 positions

Fly Half: Nothing extraordinary to report.  Oh go on then. Butch James has improved hugely over the past 18 months in my opinion, still not ideal and possibly a reason behind South Africa being unable to ignite the back line, but good tactical kicker and solid defender, also seems to have learned to bend in the tackle. Andy Farrell at 10? No idea how he will do. He has yet to provide England fans with a reason for the RFU's major outlay in securing his signature. On paper he offers similar attributes to Jonny Wilkinson, unfortunately this includes a propensity for injury. His long boot should be called into frequent action; I hope he can keep it as accurate as his goal kicking, which England fans hope will also be called into frequent action. He played at loose forward in his league days, the closest thing they have to a flanker, I suspect the England game plan will see him making use of those talents. One thing is for certain, the South Africans will not write him off as readily as many England fans have.

Centres: Mike Catt's creativity, which he cleverly hid from the South Africans in the USA game, will probably not be required too much, but, if England do get possession in the attacking 22 then could be useful. Jamie Noon's defensive qualities will be fully utilised. South Africa have upped the pace here by bringing in Steyn, but I still expect the usual stale-mate in the middle.

Wings: Both teams have plenty of pace and attacking intent here, getting the ball to them regularly appears to be a problem. Habana without doubt the class act on show, if he gets his hands on the ball in any situation he can cause trouble, Paul Sackey will have to repeat and likely better his recent Heineken Cup exploits to keep tabs on him

Full Back: England have largely negated the threat that Jason Robinson still poses by putting him back here, though there is the chance of he and Lewsey interchanging.  Percy Montgomery will punish English indiscretions, either with points when within range, or with large chunks of territory. He can also pose a threat from misdirected tactical kicks, particularly if he can link up with Habana. He can still be susceptible to pressure though, Farrell has the boot to put up towering kicks, the question remains whether England have the pace to get under them and shake Percy's confidence, with kick chaser-in-chief Lewis Moody not starting I am not sure.

Percy will equal Joost van der Westhuizen's record of 89 caps on Friday.

Do miracles happen? Can England find a win?  Well we all watch sport because anything can happen, but even the most optimistic of England supporters must think it highly unlikely. I have tried to provide a few reasons for hope, but still haven't convinced myself that England will actually win. Won't stop me being up at 3 in the morning to watch though, shouting and screaming at the TV as usual, come on join me, it won't be pretty but imagine how you will feel if you do miss a most unlikely victory.

England:

1) Andrew Sheridan 2) Mark Regan 3) Matt Stevens

4) Simon Shaw 5) Ben Kay

6) Martin Corry (Captain) 8) Nick Easter 7) Tom Rees

9) Shaun Perry 10) Andy Farrell

11) Paul Sackey 12) Mike Catt 13) Jamie Noon 14) Josh Lewsey

15) Jason Robinson

Replacements: 16) George Chuter 17) Perry Freshwater 18) Steve Borthwick 19) Lewis Moody 20) Andy Gomarsall 21) Peter Richards 22) Mathew Tait

South Africa:

1) Os du Randt 2) John Smit (Captain) 3) Brendon Botha

4) Bakkies Botha 5) Victor Matfield

6) Wickus van Heerden 8) Danie Rossouw 7) Juan Smith

9) Fourie du Preez 10) Butch James

11) Bryan Habana 12) Francois Steyn 13) Jaque Fourie 14) JP Pietersen

15) Percy Montgomery

Replacements: 16) Bismarck du Plessis 17) CJ van der Linde 18) Johannes Muller 19) Bobby Skinstad 20) Ruan Pienaar 21) Andre Pretorius 22) Wynand Olivier

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