By Behindthebench
May 12 2016

Saracens vs Racing 92.  The European Rugby Champions Cup Final.  Grand Stade de Lyon.  Saturday 14 May.  Who's excited? I for one spent the whole morning planning the two days in Lyon. But I found myself casting my mind back to 2008...and what has happened in the intervening eight years in the journey from the underachieving underdogs (league wise) who beat Ospreys in the Quarter Final and nearly overcame Munster in the Semi to a European powerhouse expected by many to complete the double. It's been a rapid rise for Racing too, who resided in the second tier as recently as 2009 as they look to eclipse Toulon in the French game ahead of their impending move into a new state of the art ground.

The Pool stages had a delayed start due to the Paris atrocities caused the postponement of the Glasgow Warriors home game, so they began the European campaign with a 29-12 win at Scarlets, where scrum half Maxime Machenaud orchestrated an impressive first half display which yielded a quartet of tries. Back at home, sharp counter attacking on Carter's debut fresh from winning the World Cup brought five tries in a 33-3 win against Northampton Saints in Paris, but the return game at Franklins Gardens was altogether more cagey, as a 9-9 draw ensued. The delayed Glasgow home game was played in January and saw the hosts win 34-10, claiming four tries, with the power of their rolling maul to the fore. It was more of the same, as Carter, playing at 12, saw his side score seven tries and claim a home Quarter Final with a 64-14 win over Scarlets. 

Helpfully, the Racing 92 website has an English version and one phrase in particular caught my eye "committed, clear-headed and disciplined right to the final whistle" or how about "“We never stopped believing," said an emotional captain Dimitri Szarzewski after the final whistle. "Throughout the whole match we stuck together, we were courageous and we never gave up.” That was his reflection on the dramatic 19-16 Quarter Final win against three times champions Toulon, settled by Machenaud's boot two minutes from the end. It's a comment which would not be out of place in a number of Saracens matches this season, though, Bath, Gloucester and Newcastle at home being just three examples, but, more pertinently, it echoed that Quarter Final in Paris last season, as Saracens held on in the game, and up stepped Marcelo Bosch to settle it in the Parisian suburbs.

This win against Toulon was explicitly seen as a major step in Racing's powerful journey from also-rans to serious contenders at home and abroad. In the best possible sense, then, the final places together two sides well-matched in quality but also temperament. The Leicester semi final saw the Tigers enjoy more possession, territory and make more metres, but poor quality handling, contributed to by some powerful Racing defence, and clinical finishing, assured another 19-16 win, even if they were broached right at the end. Much has been said about the class of Dan Carter in attack and as a controller of the game, but in a game where he made little ground, he made 16 tackles, second only to number 8 Chris Masoe. A very powerful statement of the importance of the collective endeavour above moments of brilliance.

This perhaps explains a statistical oddity in the Top 14 table, which sees Racing with a modest points difference of +31, whilst the sides around them are hitting the +200 mark and scoring far more tries, with the Parisian side trickling just towards 50, in contrast to some comfortable winning margins in Europe. Looking behind this, though, it seems to underline that the Parisian side have mastered the ability of emerging from the right side of tight games, and making the most of the points which they do score. They rarely win big, but seem to do better against the top ranked sides in the Top 14, underlined by the campaign starting with a 27-22 win at Toulon, before a one point win was eked out at home to La Rochelle, ahead of a 30-18 loss at struggling Agen. Solid wins followed at home to Grenoble (23-14) and at Oyonnax (18-9). October was rounded off by a pair of home wins against Stade Francais (27-18) and Brive (17-14), but a mixed November featured a heavy 34-8 loss at Castres and a 28-13 home success over Toulouse a 15-all draw at Pau opened December. The festive period underlined Racing's taste for the big game, as they won 20-16 at Clermont and headed into the Top 14 break with a 23-14 home win over Bordeaux-Begles. 

They resumed in late January with a 26-3 home win over Oyonnax before edging a thrilling 39-35 win in Grenoble, only to be undone at home by Castres at the end of February. March, though, opened with two of the more comfortable wins, 38-13 at home to Agen and 34-16 at Stade Francais. Since then, though, domestic form has been patchy, perhaps reflecting changes to the squad given European fixtures, but at the same time suggesting that they don't have the same strength in depth as Saracens. The last half dozen games have brought wins at Bordeaux(28-20) and at home to Clermont (26-20), but losses at Montpellier (60-7), at home to Toulon (21-20), at Toulouse (14-3), and, in their most recent game, 33-27 at Brive.

Turning to the game, Saracens stand favourites in the eyes of the bookmakers, and indeed pundits. Whilst it may well seem a "home" game for Racing, Sarries have never been fazed in the big games, witness the comfortable response to the early setback against Wasps as just one example. It's been pointed out that their adaptability is crucial - you'd back them to emerge victorious from whatever type of match emerges. Looking at the majority of results, Racing will probbaly look for a tight game, relying on the power of their defence, and taking counter attacking opportunities as they emerge, which might not be too far from the Saracens approach, but, even with a side featuring players of the calibre of Carter and Juan Imhoff, Sarries have the greater array of attacking talent, not to mention greater big match experience, and will surely make more of the line breaks that come their way than Leicester did. However, it looks absolutely vital to gain parity or better in the scrum to avoid giving Carter the chance to settle it from the boot, whilst themselves using an astute kicking game to pen Racing back and force them to take the ball from deep. Given the return of the first choice line up, Saracens appear to have a clear edge in the lineout, which is vital given the likely importance of territory rather than possession.

Saracens line up has crystalised into a more or less definite starting XV, with the only unknown selections tending to be in the back row. So Alex Goode should be at full back, with Chris Ashton and Chris Wyles on the wings, and Duncan Taylor accompanying Brad Barritt in the centres, Owen Farrell will be back at fly half, alongside Richard Wigglesworth, whose box-kicking may be a particularly important factor, alongside the tactical and place kicking of his half back partner. Forwards wise, Mako Vunipola should be at loosehead, with Jamie George at hooker and Petrus du Plessis at tighthead, with George Kruis and Maro Itoje returning in the second row and a back row of Michael Rhodes, Will Fraser and Billy Vunipola. Racing will presumably opt for something similar to their semi-final so Brice Dulin will be at full back, with the dangerous duo of Jose Rolocoko and Imhoff occupying the wings, outside a central partnership of Johannes Goosen and Alexandre Dumoulin. Carter will be at fly half alongside scrum half Machenaud. Into the pack, and the front row should consist of loosehead Eddy Ben Arous, hooker and captain Szarzewski and tighead Ben Tameifuna. Luke Charteris and Francois van der Merwe should team up in the second row with a back row comprising of Wencelas Lauret, Bernard Le Roux and Masoe. 

This dominance won't last for ever, and, as with many things in life, you have to take the opportunity when it arrives. It feels impeccably that Saracens have been building towards this and have arguably progressed further down the road than Racing. The time is now.