Northampton Saints
MoTM: The Review
By Saint Tim
August 9 2011
Those of you who follow my weekly diatribe will know that over the close season last year I updated my Man of the Match data capture process from an ad-hoc spreadsheet – which was clumsy and error prone (rather like me) – to an access database which I have continued to enhance and bug fix as the season has progressed. I also entered the complete season from 2009-2010 into the system. One key advantage of the change is that I am now able much more easily to mine data to answer some of the more esoteric questions I might pose. This will only increase as the volume of data increases and we might even get some trend analysis at some stage in the future. My first key question however was is the current first past the post methodology we use for the Man of the Match producing the right and consistent result?
The First Past the Post Result
The two tables below show the final results for 2009-10 and 2010-11. As you can see this year Stephen Myler was a clear winner (5 wins) from Ben Foden (4 wins) with Brian Mujati, Paul Diggin and Roger Wilson in third (3 wins). Last season Chris Ashton (6 wins) topped the pile from Soane Tonga’uiha and Phil Dowson (5 wins) with Ben Foden (4 wins) just behind.
2011 Leaderboard
2010 Leaderboard
But my nagging question was did Stephen Myler actually pull in the most votes?
Who pulled in the most votes?
2010-11
The table below shows the top player for the total number of votes cast.
It can clearly be seen from the tables below that whilst Stephen Myler won overall he did not get the most votes – that accolade goes to Roger Wilson who wasn’t even the runner up in the first past the post system. Perhaps the most surprising was that our Captain who only gor one MoTM win actually got the seventh highest number of votes.
This got me wondering if this was a anomaly this season or whether it happened last year – the table for which is shown below.
2009-10
I must admit I was rather surprised to see that the same thing had happened with Soane Tonga’huia comfortably out scoring Chris Ashton in votes but not in the first past the post.
Average Votes per Game
This left me somewhat confused and I suspected that the reason was that Roger had played the most games and thus would have a lower average votes per game he started, so this was the next thing I looked at.
2010-11
The table for the average votes per game is shown below and is headed by a surprising name. It is a statistical anomaly that Alex Waller, who started two matches and won the MoTM for both of them, leads the pack. Behind him though is again Roger Wilson. Stephen Myler does not even come next in the rankings as that accolade goes to Ben Foden.
2009-10
The table for the previous season also shows Chris Ashton slipping down the rankings to third.
Conclusion
The only conclusion I can draw from this is that when they shine certain players really stand out and the position most likely to do that is Winger and Fly Half – whereas other positions such as back row or prop can be consistent performers’ week in week out but eclipsed by the fancy dans. So next I looked at how the various positions performed.
So how do the positions perform?
The total number of votes gained by position is shown below.
As you can see the Back Row is consistently the highest scoring position followed by Prop. But of course there are multiple players in those positions so if we look at the averages per player in those positions (and note I attach a player to a position rather than where they played that game so I have a utility for those who move a lot and during this period that was Bruce Reihana) then the picture is slightly different.
Here we can see the average for last season and this season the fancy dan backs get more average votes per game than do the forwards and this time we see for 2010-11 that Fly Half does indeed "as a position" get the highest average votes per game.
Zero Votes
The other big thing that stood out from this information above was the very low average votes per game for our centres. This led me to look at those players and those positions failing to get a single vote in a game. This is in no way aimed at the individuals as they get the best vote each week by being on the team sheet that Jim pins up – it is more a critique of our game plan.
First up let’s look at the position getting zero votes
2010-11
2009-10
It was not a surprise to me to see how badly the centre scored here as I do the numbers every week. It shows that what we are looking for in our MoTM voting is something special, that sparkle and that is not our game plan through the centres. We do not look for the solidity in defence, the turnovers or the organisation that they bring.
It was a little surprising how often the forwards picked up zero votes. I will leave it for others to draw conclusions there.
Below are the players with the most games with zero votes. Again some surprises here. The ones that particularly stood out were Sorenson (although I urge all to read broonie’s critique of his season) and the two monster props Tiny and the Mooj. I am not sure if we just expected so much more last season?
2010-11
2009-10
And finally
Yes there is an “and finally” as I looked at those games we played which got the zero votes, the opposition and where they were played. It is interesting to see how many times we have played Saracens over the last two years and it is a little wonder that these fixtures are losing their appeal.
2010-11
2009-10
A Final Plea
If there is any other analysis you might find interesting now you can see the sort of data I am collecting please let me know and I will see if it can be drawn out.
I hope you have enjoyed reading this – It will soon be the new season and I will be back to the weekly grind of producing words.
Digg
Delicious
Facebook
Reddit
Stumbleupon09/08/2011 13:42
If you do not already have an account Click here to Register.
Quote:Saint Tim
It was a little surprising how often the forwards picked up zero votes. I will leave it for others to draw conclusions there.
There have been a few games this season where people have said that they would like to vote for The Pack. I wonder if the fact that we (quite reasonably) can't do this is a factor; I seem to recall, for example, that in the Newcastle home game I voted for Dicko for his "steering" of the pack, as I could not pick an individual forward.
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
You could overlay the excellent MoM analysis with the ESPN stats that they provide after every game - example here..
Whilst stats don't tell everything - trends like English forwards making no ground carrying are pretty interesting colour against a viewers perception of the game
Contrast for example the Heineken Cup final here against MoM for that game..
Callum 2nd and Ben 1st per the poll with a few players getting few or no votes at all
For me he did have a great game and seemed to be everywhere yet per the stats, Callum made the least tackles of any of the back row, gave away (jointly) the most penalties and carried half the yards of Phil or Roger
Tubs
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
That might be interesting. I will have a scan later.
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
Some of these are maybe not a surprise as they did not play many games (eg Vickerman, Cornwell, Vickers etc) but we have one player who played 4 times and got a single vote on each occasion. We also have one player with a total of over 10 games who has never ever had a zero vote game.
Anyone care to guess who these two players are?
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
He does have a number (10) of single vote appearances :-D
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
What do you mean you've got a day job to do as well?
Good stuff though!
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
Vote every game - Courtney, Foden or Dickson ?
Also in the vote every game you might be surprised that none of your list are included.
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
4 starts elliott or waller?
vote every game - tintin?
No one has the four starter yet. For info the person in question is still with the club but no longer on the playing side. Jamie Elliot does have 4 starts and he has a vote in every single one of them BUT for two of the games he got well over the single vote.
Alex Waller has only two starts and he won the MoTM in both those games so yes he has no zero votes but doesn't meet the other two criteria (4 games with a single vote in each)
Nope tintin doesn't have a vote every game as there were three starts where he failed to get a vote..
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
Quote:Saint Tim
LOL Chris - but it is interesting.
No one has the four starter yet. For info the person in question is still with the club but no longer on the playing side. Jamie Elliot does have 4 starts and he has a vote in every single one of them BUT for two of the games he got well over the single vote.
Alan Dickens?
Now who has more than 10 starts and a vote (doesn't matter how many votes for this one) in every game.
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
It isn't one of the so called "Cup Final Team" as they have all been involved in so many games that it isn't surprising that they have at least one game where they didn't get a vote.
I can tell you that this player only appeared as a starter in 2010-11.
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
Tom Wood
Ryan Powell
Greg Tonks
Can't believe Tiny had 0 point games.. he was my player of the year, with Daisy as most improved and Callum as best newcomer (feel like we were robbed of Tom W for a lot of games with call ups and injury)
Tom Wood and Ryan Powell also notched up zero vote games leaving Greig Tonks as the man in question. He had 11 starts and got at least one vote in every single game.
Hope you enjoyed that.
Tomorrows little task will be to produce a list of those games where every player got a vote. There are a few out there. I will publish when I have it.
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
There were 6 in 2009-10 and 3 in 2010-11 despite us getting an increased average vote last season.
I suspected that most would be home games as these tend to draw a bigger vote as more people see the games but it isn't really statistically much difference. There are 5 home games, 3 away games and one at a neutral venue.
So next I thought - ok they must all be sparkling wins but no there are two games we lost in the mix.
So then I thought they must all be games with big votes. But again I was wrong. The lowest poll that had every player was one of the lowest we have ever had - which was the loss away at the stoop in 2009-10 when only 41 people voted.
No real pattern and some surprises - at least for me - in that picture.
“Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one.”
Benjamin Franklin
Tetleys Block F E143
More Northampton Saints headlines
- End of season how the squad was used analysis
- This weeks rugby 1st - 5th July
- Weekend Rugby 27th/28th June
- Weekend Rugby 19th - 20th June 2026
- Weekend Rugby 12th - 14th June 2026
- Weekend Rugby 5th - 7th June 2026
- Weekend Rugby 29th - 31st May 20206
- Weekend Rugby 22nd - 23rd May 2026
- Weekend Rugby 15th - 17th May 2026