By Jason Harris
January 11 2007

Round 5 of the European Challenge and Heineken Cups is my favourinte time of year as it's so much fun working out the different permutations. Saracens are in the ECC mix once again, but can they win Pool 2 and with sufficient points to secure a home tie in the quarter and semi finals? Apart from a weird scenario involving Sarries not taking a bonus point in beating Narbonne and GRAN and Glasgow fighiting out a high-scoring draw in Italy, the only way for Sarries to be able to travel to Hughenden as Pool winners will be if they beat Narbonne and Glasgow lose in Italy.

If the Pool goes to form, then Sarries will win at home and Glasgow will do likewise away, leaving a maximum gap of 5 points between the two teams in the table. So the game in Scotland on Friday week could well be a winner-takes-all affair.

Here is the first, and most important, stat to remember:

Sarries, after four rounds, have 19 match points and Glasgow have 15.

This weekend sees Sarries take on Narbonne at Vicarage Road on Sunday in the last of the Round 5 matches, while the Warriors take on GRAN Parma in Italy on Saturday.

The most simplistic scenario that could determine the fate of Pool 2 is for Sarries to beat Narbonne and for Glasgow to lose at GRAN. If that happens, then Sarries cannot be caught. If Saracens lose and Glasgow win, then Sarries must win in Glasgow to have any chance of topping the Pool, and even then a tie-break might be needed (more on that later).

Now, should the Round 5 results go to form, we should see wins for both Sarries and the Warriors and this - thanks to those good old bonus points - opens up a whole new can of worms!

Here we go, first of all taking the worst-case scenario should both sides win this weekend: (deep breath)

If Glasgow take 5 from GRAN and Sarries 4 v Narbonne, then the gap will be 3 points with Sarries on 23 and Glasgow on 20.

Should Glasgow then go on to beat Sarries and Sarries fail to net either a try or losing bonus point, then Glasgow would win the Pool on 24 or 25 points to Sarries' 23.

If the reverse happens in round 5 and Sarries take maximum points from Narbonne and Glasgow fail to get a bonus against GRAN, then there will be a 5-point gap going into round 6 with Sarries on 24 and Glasgow on 19.

If this happens, then a losing bonus point would be enough for Sarries to win the Pool on 25 points as the most Glasgow could then get is 24.

Should the status quo be maintained and the current four point gap between the teams remains going into the final match, then the permutations become a lot more complex, but we can start with this, the most simple:

A Saracens win sees them through, no ifs or buts.

On the flip side, a bonus point win for Glasgow and a zero for Sarries would see Glasgow go through with one more point, obviously.


Now, if the teams are level on match points after a Glasgow win, the following tie-break criteria will apply:


(a) the Club which has earned the most number of match points from the two matches (four points for a win, two points for a draw and bonus points).

Sarries have 4 so far, Glasgow 1. A Glasgow win will put them on 5 and Sarries must then at least pick up a losing bonus to keep on terms.

A Glasgow win with a bonus point will see Sarries needing a losing bonus and also a try bonus to keep on terms.

If the deadlock still cannot be broken, the we move to the next criterion:

(b) the Club which has scored the most tries in the two matches.

Saracens scored three back in October and Glasgow two. So Glasgow will need to score at least two more tries than Sarries at Hughenden to go through should this tie-break criterion be needed. If they score one more try than Sarries, then we're back into a tie situation and move to the next tie-break criterion.

(c) the Club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches.

Saracens have a difference of +5. You do the maths!


As far as seeding for the last eight goes, two Sarries wins will put them in a great position to net first or second seed, either of which gives them a home quarter final and, if they get through (remember Pontypridd, anyone?) a home semi final.

For information, below are the criteria for separating teams from different Pools finishing on the same number of match points, and this will be discussed in detail in the run-up to Round 6 next week.

(a) the number of tries scored in all Pool matches.
(b) aggregate points difference from all Pool matches.
(c) the Club with the fewest number of players sent off and / or suspended in all Pool matches.
(d) toss of a coin.