London Welsh
London Welsh v Exeter - Play-off Preview
By Mark W-J
April 15 2010
Last weekend’s 17-10 win at Nottingham has kept London Welsh’s season alive for at least seven days, but the concession of a last-minute try at Meadow Lane means that there’s a chance that our season could effectively be over by 5pm on Sunday. Victory over Exeter at our temporary home at Esher on Saturday, however, would guarantee that nothing in Pool B is decided until the first weekend of May.
The maths are quite simple. If Exeter win on Saturday, they will qualify for the knockout stages. If Welsh fail to collect a single point from the Chiefs’ visit then a bonus-point win for Nottingham over Doncaster on Sunday would see the Green & Whites also through to the semi-finals, with a straight head-to-head at Sandy Park on 1st May to determine the seedings. Wins for Exeter and Donny would confirm the Chiefs as top seeds with one game remaining, leaving the other three sides to contest second place.
In other competitions – including the Heineken Cup and the British & Irish Cup – the criteria for separating two teams equal on points at the end of the pool stage is the head-to-head record. With Nottingham having gained six match points to our four over the last fortnight, this would put them in a very strong position if we were to finish neck-and-neck after the closing two rounds. The RFU’s website, however, states that in the Championship at all stages of the season the first criteria will be most games won and then secondly points difference. Although the swing in points difference between Welsh & Nottingham was 20 points in the Green & Whites’ favour, we know that we have to make up 31 points over the course of the final two rounds of fixtures to ensure that we would have the upper hand in that eventuality.
Exeter travel to Surrey on the back of a 51-15 win over Doncaster last weekend, the fourth time this season that they’ve clocked a half-century. They finished four points short of that target on their last visit to Esher, a 46-8 victory on the opening day of last season, while our last appearance in the league at Molesey Road, for a ‘home’ game with Moseley on 2nd May last year, resulted in a 50-37 win, by seven tries to six. It was a London Welsh win away to Esher exactly a year ago that saw Mike Schmidt’s team relegated despite recording nine wins and a draw from the 15 matches in the second half of the season.
That sequence, which saw them gain 44 of their 61 points, began with a 12-12 draw at Exeter, but closed with consecutive defeats to Doncaster, Welsh and Bedford – the overall record shows that they failed to beat the top six sides, but won against all of the other teams in the division. This run only served to highlight the absurdity of relegating the club which finished 12th of the sixteen teams in last year’s National One, 27 points clear of 13th place Sedgley Park yet only 21 points adrift of the Pirates in 7th. Thankfully, normal service will be resumed next season, with Esher having sealed promotion to the Championship last weekend.
The big question is – will they be renewing acquaintance with the Chiefs? It’s no secret that Exeter have been harbouring ambitions of mixing it with the big boys for some time now, with the move to Sandy Park being a significant step towards fulfilling criteria both on and off the pitch. Some rival supporters – perhaps jealous of the purpose-built facilities, complete with conference centre, which generate cash 365 days a year, and the full-time squad with quality in depth in almost every position - have intimated that the club already view themselves as the Premiership’s 14th, if not 13th, club. It’s a situation presumably not helped by the suggestions in the press that Exeter might both be elevated to an expanded 14-team Premiership without actually winning promotion on the pitch.
Yet it is quite conceivable that the Chiefs could find themselves rubbing shoulders with the elite without any outside interference. While their proud record at Sandy Park shows only five defeats in four seasons, with the relegated Premiership club claiming the spoils every time, the 35-26 win at the Memorial Stadium (complete with try bonus) at the start of October genuinely made the rest of the Championship sit up and take notice. The mini-collapse over Christmas – including revenge for Bristol and, of course, defeat at ODP – provided more ammunition for the internet snipers, but as Wasps have proved time and again, qualification for the play-offs is the primary concern; after that the real business starts.
The fact that the play-offs began with defeat at Nottingham again set the message boards on red alert, but of the last three weeks the Chiefs have quietly gone about their business. They may have scored three of their four tries against Welsh in the closing eight minutes; they may have needed a penalty in the 75th minute to sneak a 21-19 win at Doncaster; but there is every indication in these performances that Exeter are not panicking. They know that they’re good enough to pick up the wins that will propel them to the knockout stages and a shot at the big time, and they know that they’ve got the all-round strength to exploit the opportunities no matter when they arise.
From a Welsh perspective, Sunday’s win at Nottingham showed that the painful lesson of the home defeat eight days previously had been absorbed and addressed. We have to hope that the same can be said of the loss at Sandy Park three weeks ago and that we can go to Doncaster in a fortnight with ambitions of our own.
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15: Aled Thomas, 14: Paul Sampson, 13: Dominic Shabbo, 12: Paul Mackey, 11: Errie Claassens, 10: Gordon Ross, 9: Nick Runciman, 8: Lee Beach, 7: Michael Hills, 6: Jonathan Mills (c), 5: Mike Powell, 4: Matt Corker, 3: Lorne Ward, 2: Chris Whitehead, 1: Dorian Williams
Replacements; 16: Dan George. 17: Joe Horn-Smith. 18: Ben Thomas. 19; Gavin O'Meara. 20: Rob Lewis. 21: Simon Whatling. 22: Neil Starling.
15: Phil Dollman. 14: Matt Jess. 13: Nic Sestaret. 12: Bryan Rennie. 11: Mark Foster. 10: Danny Gray. 9: Haydn Thomas. 8: Richie Baxter. 7: James Scaysbrook. 6: Tom Johnson. 5: James Hanks. 4: Tom Hayes (captain). 3: Hoani Tui. 2: Neil Clark. 1: Brett Sturgess.
Replacements:16: Saul Nelson. 17: Chris Budgen. 18: David Gannon. 19: Andy Miller. 20: Clive Stuart-Smith. 21: Steve Jones. 22: Matt Cornwall.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2010:04:15:14:42:55 by Dragons' Den.
17/04/2010 14:31
17/04/2010 14:54
Pen try
LW 8-10 Exe
conv kick
10-10
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2010:04:17:16:17:51 by Blackheath Welsh.
17/04/2010 18:25
Not a single replacement used by us today, amazing given it has been a tough season.
Regardless of the Notts v Donny result tomorrow a win at Doncaster in a fortnight, bar some freak result, is very likely to give us a place in the S-Fs.
Places on the LWSC coach to Doncaster on 1st May are filling up quickly. 07989 784082 to book your place.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2010:04:18:01:27:42 by nld.
But I think we won in spite of our (least?) favourite Gog. Even the Ex supporters were bemused by a lot of his decisions when they went their way.
However our boys showed they had the grit to survive.
I agree Exeforever's a great guy. His postings on Rolling Maul are always worth reading. Here's his summary for our very own Dottigirl of the situation after todays results
Originally posted by dottigirl
"So, where does that leave us in the Ex/LW/Notts/Donny pool? I haven't worked it out yet".
"Welsh's fate is in their own hands, win at Donny and you will be in the semis regardless of the result at SP. Donny's fate depends on beating Welsh and picking up 5 points into the bargain and Exe beating Nottingham. Nottingham need to pick up 5 points against Exe and hope that Donny beat Welsh, otherwise they need to win by 53 points at SP. Exe need any size of win against Nottingham to guarantee homefield advantage. By far the most likely outcome is that Exe will be top and Welsh will be second in Pool B just as Bris will be top and Bedford second in Pool A. IIRC this will exactly reflect the situation at the end of the regular season so for all the excitement along the way we will have arrived at the place from which we started......"
[www.rolling-maul.com]
Many thanks Ex for such a succinct summary
Good game yesterday, with that heart-stopping injury time conversion attempted in perfect silence as were all the other kicks all afternoon. Good banter between all the fans. a true rugby occassion.
Eddie
Utterly fantastic, those boys played out of their skin, as fans and supporters we couldn't have asked for any more effort, heart and determination.
When i arrived at Esher i was slighty concerned by the amount of Ex fans (superb support by the way) and the noise they were making, however kick off came and the Welsh fans piped up! Key moment for me was when the Ex fans were silent in the second half, their assumption of winning maybe slightly premature!
Big trip up to Donny in a couple of weeks, if we play like that then it should all be fine.
Once again i cannot praise the boys and coaching staff enough, immense effort by all, Mackey's defence was so solid, Ross' drop goal perfect and the forwards spectacular, the back row the most hard working i've seen them! Mills man if the match thoroughly deserved.
Well done boys you did us very very proud!!
If Jonathan was Man Of The Match Then many congratulations to him. This said mind i thought we had 15 heroes on Saturday who were all MEN OF THE MATCH a SUPER SUPER team effort
I agree with you 100% that the entire 15 were superb, just need a repeat of that up in Doncaster!
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