London Welsh
Doncaster v London Welsh - Play Off Preview
By Mark W-J
April 29 2010
You’d like to think that your team’s main aim every weekend is to win, but this Saturday at Doncaster that really is the sole objective for London Welsh. A win will see the Exiles qualify for the knockout stages of the inaugural Championship play-offs, and while a losing bonus point may be enough we would be left sweating on the result at Exeter, where we would need the Chiefs to beat Nottingham.
Pool B has been incredibly open, with none of the four teams yet guaranteed a semi-final berth, although Exeter would have to lose at home by 27 points to be denied qualification. The Chiefs haven’t lost a league match by that margin since a 70-5 thrashing at The Stoop in October 2005, although they gained revenge by inflicting Quins’ only defeat of the campaign four months later. Their heaviest defeat in four seasons at Sandy Park is 14 points, against Leeds (2006-07) and Northampton (2007-08); the Pirates’ 43-16 win at the County Ground in September 2005 was the last time they were beaten by a 27 point margin at home. But we know from bitter experience not to rule out any sequence of results, no matter how improbable – it is 20 years ago this weekend since we travelled up to Wakefield and saw our survival hopes dashed by freak results involving Lydney, Nuneaton and Vale of Lune.
For Welsh, four points against Doncaster will suffice – our destiny is in our own hands following two great wins against Nottingham and Exeter. We have, to all intents and purposes, been playing knockout rugby since the Easter mauling at the hands of Nottingham, knowing that one more defeat would effectively end our season, and it’s this battle-hardened attitude which will hopefully give us an edge on Saturday. The Knights have been arguably the most inconsistent team in the league this season – on their day they’re more than a match for the top sides, having beaten Bristol and Bedford on top of their 20-9 win at ODP back in October; however, they won only 10 of 22 fixtures, including two separate runs of four consecutive victories. They qualified from their pool in the British & Irish Cup with a maximum return of 25 points from five matches, yet were brutally swept aside 43-5 (six tries to one) at Camborne in last week’s semi-final.
With the fourth worst attack and the fourth best defence in the Championship, Doncaster matches have not generally been high-scoring affairs. Scottish fly-half Alastair Warnock is their top scorer with 132, but he ranks 11th overall, behind the top scorers for ten of the other clubs (the exception being Coventry). Eight of their 49 league tries this season have been penalty tries – more than any other Championship club: centre Hudson Tonga’uiha, with five, is their second highest scorer. Conversely, only one of the 59 tries they have conceded was a penalty try, and that was at Exeter three weeks ago – only Bristol have not had a penalty try awarded against them this season. Yet this doesn’t necessarily mean that the Knights are well-disciplined – they’ve received three red cards this season, 60% of the total number shown in 162 league and play-off fixtures. Not that Welsh can take the moral high ground – having received 11 yellow cards in 22 league matches we’ve been shown five in as many matches in the play-offs.
Looking back at results over the first five rounds of fixtures in Pool B, it’s hard to discern a pattern of form for any of the four teams. Only Exeter have managed to string together three consecutive wins, a feat which we need to emulate on Saturday, while Donny’s home form and our away record both read won one, lost one. If we do lose at Castle Park, a losing bonus point would keep us ahead of the Knights on points difference, even if they were to claim a try bonus. A try bonus on its own would not be enough for us to progress – the losing bonus is vital as a defeat of more than seven points would see Donny overcome the current margin of 14 points in our favour. However, even with a losing bonus point we would need Exeter to at least draw at home to Nottingham – the combination of results in that game and their impact on our chances are too numerous and convoluted to list here. Let’s just hope and pray for a Welsh win so that we can throw the calculators out of the window!
Elsewhere, either Birmingham Solihull or Coventry will drop down to National One this weekend to make way for Esher – Bees make the short trip to Moseley, who secured their place in the Championship next season with a 37-5 win over Cov last week, while Rotherham visit Butts Park. Moseley suffered a bit of a hangover after beating Bristol on the final weekend of the ‘main’ season, only to find themselves in the relegation play-offs courtesy of Plymouth’s win at Doncaster, and for a while it appeared that the team which finished 9th, 55 points clear of 12th-placed Bees, could be relegated, but back-to-back wins and six bonus points from five games have ensured that Moseley live to fight another day. Rumours about the future of London Welsh – who, where and how – refuse to go away, but for now we shall try to enjoy the remainder of the 2009-10 season – however long that may be.
Digg
Delicious
Facebook
Reddit
Stumbleupon29/04/2010 08:44
If you do not already have an account Click here to Register.
London Welsh welcome back club captain Nathan Bonner-Evans and prop Michael Holford to the replacement bench for this Saturday's important Championship clash with Doncaster.
A win for the Welsh will see us through to the semi-finals of the Championship with either a Friday night fixture away against Bristol at their Memorial Ground on May 7th or a home draw against Bedford Blues, depending on tomorrow's results.
The Supporters Club are running a full size coach with on-board toilet to Doncaster. Phone the Supporters Club hotline 07989 784082 or take a chance and turn up at Old Deer Park by 9am. Pick ups can be arranged on M1 or North Circular if you phone today.
Team:
15: Aled Thomas
14: Paul Sampson
13: Dominic Shabbo
12: Paul Mackey
11: Errie Claassens
10: Gordon Ross
9: Nick Runciman
1: Dorian Williams
2: Chris Whitehead
3: Lorne Ward
4: Matt Corker
5: Mike Powell
6: Jonathan Mills (capt)
7: Michael Hills
8: Lee Beach
Replacements:
16: Gavin O'Meara
17: Michael Holford
18: Ben Thomas
19: Nathan Bonner-Evans
20: Rob Lewis
21: Simon Whatling
22: Neil Starling.
Quote:eddie57
A win for the Welsh will see us through to the semi-finals of the Championship with either a Friday night fixture away against Bristol at their Memorial Ground on May 7th or a home draw against Bedford Blues, depending on tomorrow's results.
I believe the semis and final are to be broadcast live on Sky?
If we win tomorrow, then that's London Welsh on the TELLY!
Quote:eddie57
A win for the Welsh will see us through to the semi-finals of the Championship with either a Friday night fixture away against Bristol at their Memorial Ground on May 7th or a home draw against Bedford Blues, depending on tomorrow's results.
Home?
Where's that then?
![[:wor kid:]](/phorum-5.1.15/mods/smileys/images/13.gif "[:wor kid:]")
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2010:04:30:17:50:58 by Haydn2.
We are now on the "telly" on Friday SKY SPORT 4 v Bristol
02/05/2010 20:03
More London Welsh headlines
- 1s and 2s Playing at ODP this Saturday
- Bumper Weekend of Matches for London Welsh
- Final Pre-season Match at Grasshoppers
- Tom May is London Welsh Backs Coach
- 1st XV Pre-Season Fixtures
- London Welsh Women Ready For Pre-Season
- London Welsh Women RFC Fixtures
- 2XV 'Druids' Fixtures
- 1st XV 2018/19 Fixtures