By Mark H
September 1 2005

Part two of the season preview, and rightly we're concentrating on matters closest to home. 2004/05 had its positive moments, but you couldn't help but feeling that it could have been a lot, lot better.

So to the burning question, is this finally going to be the year that Falcons rise again, or will there be a lot of falling on swords.  According to those present at the end of season dinner, chairman Dave Thompson was insistent that this season would have to be better; that a trophy would be won or there would be changes.  Read into that what you personally want to read, we’ll all have our own opinions.  This season’s Premiership is probably the most competitive ever, and the message is clear – to be near the top in this league you have to be consistent, week in, week out.  To get a spot in the play-offs will probably mean that a team has to get 13 (with bonus points) or 14 wins, or to look at it another way, only fail to win in a maximum of nine games.  Over the past two seasons, Falcons have picked up a total of 15 wins.  To stand any chance of those play-offs, every player will have to be at the top of their form every week; and, most crucially, be fit every week.  To that extent, the “big” men – Wilkinson, Charvis, Finegan, Burke, Noon – will all have to stay healthy; Finegan aside (obviously), all missed games through injury last season.  In fact, there is a case for saying that if they’re the big name men, the key men are Dave Walder, Phil Dowson, Mike McCarthy, Joe Shaw and Mathew Tait, as they’ll be the men who will more than likely step into the breach should the “big” men be injured.

 

Key.  Key.  Key.

 

So what would a fully fit Falcons squad be able to achieve?  Well, the pack is still an unknown.  The signings of Tino Paoletti and Robbie Morris will bring extra oomph in the front row, but the work rate needs to be high all around the pitch.  We all know what Micky and Peelie can do, and hopefully David Wilson can get through the season unscathed to cement his place in the England development squad.  Second row looks stronger than in previous years with Stuart Grimes now available all year round, Parling and Buist continuing their development, and Luke Gross in the (near) background.  Andy Perry will be an interesting case, coming into the Premiership at a relatively late age, but having discussed this at the media day with better local judges than I, he’ll be ready with the potential to surprise us all over the next nine months.

 

In the back row, Rob has signed real class in Owen Finegan – now just to get him fully fit – and this could well mean that Phil Dowson is the man who loses out as four (Finegan, Harris, Charvis and Dowson) into three won’t go (and don’t ignore Mike McCarthy, who seemed at times last season to be just that).  Openside is still a worry; if Cory Harris gets injured I can see Charva going there and Dowse going to eight rather than Rob calling up a specialist from the academy.  This is one area that may come back to bite later in the season.

 

Just for a change, the cameras are not on Jonny.

 

As always, there are a number of questions over the half backs.  I’m not sure (ok, I really don’t like) the apparent policy of alternating Hall Charlton and James Grindal week in, week out, and would rather see one man be the man with the shirt and the other fighting to get it, as it can’t be good for either player to go into a game thinking “however well I play this week, I might not be in next week”.  Expect Lee Dickson to come into the shake-up at some point as well.  In the ten shirt should be Jonny.  Or Dave.  Or Sparks.  Such is the uncertainty over Jonny health-wise (and there has to be, as he deserves the chance to feel his way back in without outside pressures on him), that it would be great for Falcons if he could get fit and then be totally ignored by England for the season.  It won’t happen, of course, but there is no doubt that we are (as any side is) a better side with JW than without him.

 

The three quarters almost pick themselves – four of Elliott, Tait, May, Mayerhofler and Noon is our best, and Burkey behind them makes our 11-15 look solid.  Someone has made the point on the site recently though, what if Burkey is injured, especially whilst his natural stand-in – Joe Shaw – is also struggling?  We’re back to that quality question again, as any side in the Premiership would miss a player of that quality, with how they are replaced being the key.

 

Rob, Charv and Smithy face the media at the Guinness Premiership launch

 

There is no doubt that Rob Andrew, possibly more than any other coach or Director of Rugby, is under pressure this year; he’s been given the opportunity to expand the squad and try and take it back to the peak of the English club game.  The longest reign of any other Premiership coach was just over five years for Dean Richards, and he got sacked eighteen months after winning fourth consecutive title!  This produces a number of questions (some of which have been alluded to on this site), which I’ll try and give my opinions to:-

 

Would we, as supporters, settle for good rugby but a place in the lower reaches of the league, or would we rather see dreadful rugby and get into the top four?  It’s an interesting poser, and personally, I think it’s now time to say to hell with the style, let’s get the results, as too often in recent seasons it’s been a case of the rugby not quite being up to scratch and defeats.  Start winning games in whatever way, confidence will grow, and then the good stuff can come.

 

Will we win the league this season?  Much as I’d like to say yes, this is a definite no, simply because there are better teams in the league.

 

Will we win the Powergen Cup?  Difficult, as it’s going to require winning two games away from home and beating Sale at Kingston Park.  No.

 

Will we win the European Challenge Cup?  Possibly.  The Brive game on 22th October is massive; lose and we’re almost out before the start, win and the qualification can be sewn up by the time of the trip to France.  Two home knockout draws and we could be looking at the final; if I had to pick a last four now, I’d say that three of them will be Gloucester, Northampton and Agen. 

 

If we don’t win a trophy, will Rob be here next season?  Too simplistic a question, as we’ll need to look at the season as a whole, but I see no reason that he won’t be in charge for 2006/07, unless the final position in 2005/06 is twelfth.

 

We have to be patient (and I can hear the cries as I type this from some quarters saying that we’ve been too patient).  It’s not all going to come right from the first minute of the first game and stay that way until 27th May, nor will a good start – remember last season? – guarantee anything.  If I had one wish for the season, it’s that we’re competitive consistently, particularly after Christmas.  In all senses of the phrase, the team that finished the best will win the competition.

 

Our new hooker gets ready to crouch and hold...

 

All of which makes it about time to put my head on the block.  As I said in the first part of the preview, there are five teams that stand out, with the other seven being a bit behind.  The bottom four I believe will consist (alphabetically) of Bristol, Leeds, London Irish and Worcester, with Bristol falling back through the trap door.  In the middle four, positions six to eight will incorporate Gloucester, Falcons and Northampton, with my unlucky side of the five to miss out on the play-offs being Sale.  The top four then for me will be, again alphabetically, Bath, Leicester, London Wasps and Saracens.

 

So after all that, where will Falcons come?  Much as I’d love it to be higher, we seem destined to repeat last season and come seventh.  I want to be proved wrong though.

 

My champions?  Let’s live a little.  Bath.