By Mark H
October 21 2005

So after a one season sojourn in the Heineken Cup and the eventual defeat at Stade Francais, it’s back to the European Challenge Cup for Falcons, and an attempt to get at least one stage further than the runs of 1997/98 and 2000/01, when Agen and Harlequins won tense semi-finals.

What have we got to look forward to this year?  Well, the knockout format of recent years has been replaced by a modified version of the cup’s original formal, with five pools of four team battling for eight quarter-final places – five for the pool winners, and then the three best runners up decided by points then tries scored.  With ERC confirming that the quarter and semi-finals will be played on clubs’ own grounds, it’s a distinct advantage to be in a position to get home draws – which means being one of the top four seeds after the pool stages for a home quarter final, or being in the top two for a big semi-final advantage.

 

Falcons have been drawn in a pool with the 1997 European champions Brive, a Borders side coached by ex-Falcon Steve Bates, and L’Aquila, the Italians based approximately 90 kilometres from Rome.  Enough of those three for the moment – who’s in the other pools?

 

Pool 1 – Bristol, Narbonne, Northampton, Viadana (seeds)

 

In theory, with the style of rugby they’re playing at the moment, Northampton should win this pool by a distance.  It’s not as easy as that though, as Bristol have shown in the early stages of this Premiership season that they are dogged opponents.  Are the real Bristol the side who beat Bath and Falcons, or who were hammered at home by Gloucester twice?  It’s probably somewhere in between, and their start at Narbonne doesn’t really do them any favours.  Narbonne are flattering to deceive at the moment in the Top 14, doing reasonably well at home (3 wins out of 4) but failing miserably away (1 point out of 25).  They have a reigning champion in the big cup though in Christian Labit, having returned to his old club from Toulouse in the summer, and he could be the stand out individual in this pool should his side overcome their travel sickness. 

 

Northampton are running into a bit of form at the moment, having won the last three, and will be looking for maximum points from their first two games (home to Viadana, away to Bristol) to put them in pole position before the back to back Narbonne games.  Viadana are very much an unknown quantity, but their pedigree as runners up in the league stage of the Italian Super 10 last season, before coming a cropper in the semi final against Treviso, suggests that it wouldn’t be a surprise if they produce a shock result against Bristol or Narbonne.  Equally, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went through the group pointless.

 

Key match – not so much for the group, but the competition.  If Saints win in France in round four, then they should win the group with six out of six and get a top two seeding.

 

Qualifiers – Northampton.

 

Pool 2 – Agen (seeds), London Irish, Overmach Parma, Section Paloise

 

Ouch.  Irish must be wondering what they’ve done to be in the pool with the French seeds and the beaten finalists from last season.  Agen only missed out on the Heineken Cup when they lost a winner takes all clash against Clermont-Auvergne on the last day of the season, and will get to the semi-finals here at least.  The Stade Armandie is their fortress, and it takes a very good side to win there, either domestically or in Europe, so they should get three wins at home, plus one definite in Italy.  How they will manage in Reading on 11 December will be their big test.  Irish could capitalise if Agen slip – Pau are having a wretched time this season and their talisman, Alain Penaud, is now in Paris – but whatever happens, Irish have to win at least one game in France if they are to progress, and I’m not overly convinced they can do that (that said, their defence looked as sound as ever at Northampton last Saturday).  Opening up at Pau gets one of those French matches out of the way early, and it will go a long way to deciding who gets closest to Agen.

 

Overmach Parma (we can’t call them Parma, there are two sides in the city but only one in this year’s competition) will be the whipping boys of this pool – sad to say that most of the Italian teams still are – and they won’t score a point, but every visiting supporter will love going there.  Pau got to the final last year, walloping Brive in the semi-final, but looked like rabbits in headlights when it came to the final against Sale, something reflected in their league form, where they had to win a play-off to maintain their top flight status.  They’re struggling to even get that high this season.

 

Key match – Round 1, Pau v Irish, as the losers face a very hard fight to have any chance of getting through.

 

Qualifiers – Agen.

 

Pool 3 – Bayonne, Bucuresti, Gloucester (seeds), Toulon

 

Probably the first (and last) time I’ve ever been jealous of Gloucester supporters, both by the fact that they should win all six games, but trips to the Atlantic coast of south west France, the Mediterranean coast of south east France, and Romania’s capital city to watch them do it.  Bayonne on Saturday night is the Cherry and Whites’ first stop, and the biggest test may be not being too enchanted by the region and missing the match.  Bayonne face a straight battle with Toulon in this pool for an opportunity to progress.  Bucuresti are the tournament’s absolute minnows, and with try count likely to decide the top seeds for the knockout rounds, they’ll be the prime targets for the three other clubs.  As the side who hold the record defeat in this competition, (151-0 against Saracens), success for the Romanians will be getting a point from any game.

 

Gloucester should walk the group and go into the knockout as top seeds, which would then smooth the route to a possible final, although this week’s suspension of Peter Richards and Henry Paul for Saturday’s game in Bayonne has certainly made that match harder than it should be.  Anyone like to start me at a minimum of twenty tries for the two games against Bucuresti?  Toulon are newly promoted to the French top flight, and have made a decent start in their attempt to stay there.  I fancy them as outsiders to make the quarter-finals as a best runner up.

 

Key matches – the two all French games in rounds two and five.  If either club can win both, the presence of the Romanians and an expected ten point haul may be enough to propel them onwards.  Shared wins, and they’re both out.

 

Qualifiers – Gloucester (pool winners), Toulon (runners up)

 

Pool 5 – Amatori Catania, Connacht (seeds), Montpellier, Worcester

 

Another one of those pools for any Alan Whickers in Worcestershire.  Catania are based in Sardinia, and their previous competition experience has seen them lose all four games they’ve played, including heavy home and away losses to a Sale second XV.  Just as in the Heineken Cup, there’s an Irish province overdue a win, as Connacht have been beaten semi-finalists for the last two seasons, and are desperate to take one of the places of the “untouchable” Irish provinces in the Heineken.  Having said that, this looks a weaker Connacht squad than in previous seasons, and their current struggles in the Celtic League illustrate that.

 

Montpellier is a beautiful city apparently, but can their team play beautiful rugby?  Their finish in the lower reaches of the Top 16 last time, and their poor form this, suggest that the priority may be to keep their league status rather than progress.  Which brings us nicely to Worcester.  If they want to, the Warriors can come through this pool, possibly even as winners, but the current injury problems that they’re having, allied to their survival mentality, may mean that they choose to play understrength sides at times in the pool stages.  With the first game being at home to Montpellier, the team sheet will tell a lot about their hopes and expectations.

 

Key match – Worcester versus Montpellier, round one, totally dependent on Worcester’s approach to the competition, whether forced by injury or not.

 

Qualifiers – Connacht (pool winners), Worcester – if they want it – or Montpellier as runners up.

 

Pool 4 – Borders (seeds), Brive, L’Aquila, Newcastle

 

Rob wants a trophy; realistically this was always going to be the best shot.  It’s not the worst pool to be in, but it is one of the harder ones.  Borders, coached by ex-Falcon Steve Bates (keen to put one over his old club) and boasting a potential half back pairing of Chris Cusiter and Gregor Townsend, hold the key to this pool.  Whilst I don’t think that the Scots will qualify, they can put some major dents in the hopes of Falcons and Brive, both of whom will be looking to win both matches against them and pick up a minimum of nine points.  Whisper it quietly, but I fancy Borders to beat Brive at Netherdale in round three.

 

Brive, beaten semi-finalists in this competition last year and European champions in 1997 courtesy of a 28-9 win over Leicester, will no doubt focus all their attentions onto Saturday and the trip to Kingston Park, as a win on day one will instantly make the winners favourites to go through the pool.  There’s absolutely no doubt that if qualification rests on the return encounter, the Parc Municipal des Sports will be a bearpit, and better sides than Falcons have gone there before and lost.

 

L’Aquila are the make the numbers up team, and any team wanting to qualify from this pool will have to take the maximum off them.  And so to Falcons.  The importance of Saturday cannot be overstressed; it’s a make or break game for the season, let alone the pool.  You look at the Falcons side on paper and think “how can it fail to qualify” – and then you remember Bristol and Bath.

 

But – and this is a big but – you should also remember Perpignan at home and both Newport games last season, and Toulouse at home nearly four years ago.  Great falcons performances do occur in Europe, and Falcons now need to string a run of them together.

 

Key matches – Falcons versus Brive, Borders versus Falcons, Borders versus Brive.  Falcons need a start and wins from their first two games, and then whilst the Italian matches are going on, we can turn half an eye to Netherdale to see if Borders (who turned over a good Agen side in the Heineken two years ago) can do us a favour.

 

Qualifiers – Falcons (pool winners), Brive (runners up)

 

It’s hard to emphasise just how important the seedings for the knockout stages will be.  As in the Heineken Cup, bonus points and try counts will be crucial, and so I see the quarter-final lineup looking something like this, with those seedings in brackets:-

 

(1)   Gloucester v Toulon (8)

(2)   Northampton v Worcester or Montpellier (7)

(3)   Agen v Brive (6)

(4)   Newcastle v Connacht (5)

 

Which as you see, would be very much advantage to the English clubs.  Going on that, it would mean a potential trip to Kingsholm for a semi (last win there – 1998).  Ron has said for a while that Falcons could beat anyone in a one-off match; it may have to be done away from home.  For what it’s worth, I fancy Northampton to be one of the sides in the final; who they’ll play is anyone’s guess.