By Quaking Quin
November 27 2009

Last year there was talk of silverware in the trophy cabinet beneath the LV= Stand but this season we see the game from a different perspective. Not the best of starts but is it a bad as it looks? The Results Roadmap sorts the ‘must wins’ from the ’bad days at the office’.

To work out where Quins are likely to end up in the GP the table below sets out the games and the points needed to:

1. avoid relegation in 11^th
2. finish in 6^th & HEC qualification
3. achieve a top 4 play-off slot, or
4. fantasy 1^st place finish.

The Results Roadmap is based on the average of total points scored/games/bonus points won from the last 9 GP seasons - when there has been 12 teams and the bonus point scoring system. Over that period:

• 1^st  has won 16 games and accumulated around 77 points each season
• 4^th has won 13 games and ended with 62 points
• 6^th has won 11 games and 55 points
• 11^th spot is the minimum to avoid relegation. The lowest points count to survive was 33, by Bath in 2001-02, and the highest total not to survive was Quins in 2004-05 with 38. The target therefore is 40 points – 8 wins and 8 bonus points (draws in the Roadmap count as bonus points).

The table is easy to use – just look at the last column to see how many actual points Quins have won so far and compare them with the second column under each of the four finishing place columns. With 13 points todate, Quins fall half way between 6^th and 11^th. This means on current form they are likely to finish 9^th or 10^th next May.

Regaining lost points isn’t as easy as it looks – and highlights the phenomenum of the ‘must win’ games. To get to the magic total at the bottom of the columns Quins have to pick up all their ‘4’ and ‘5’ point matches. They can only make up lost ground by winning the more difficult loses valued at ‘0’ or ‘1’ and winning against higher placed teams.

Although Deano denied having such a table down at his office in Roehampton, it is an essential tool for monitoring previous performances and tactical team selection for up-and-coming matches. If you look at the next 4 GP games, the first three are all ‘must wins’ requiring a full 1^st XV turn-out each time – NEv, Easter, DC and Ugo all on duty.

The following 5 games include three ‘0’ or ‘1’ point games Quins could afford to lose without any serious consequences and could rest players. Alternatively, they could field at least one full squad to regain lost ground and by winning one of them would be right back into top 6 contention. So that means the coaches need to target the next 5 or 6 games – something  Deano did regularly – to put the season back on track.

The table is based on averages but has proved over the past few seasons to be accurate throughout the various rounds. Points accumulated are more important than the current league position because points mean prizes and things only even out over the full season. Sarries (who finished 9^th last time) have upset the stats for a number of clubs so far but if you compare the points in the GP table after each round you will see how close the placings really are – had Quins gained 33 points they would now be one point ahead of Sarries in top spot, and had they managed only 8 points they would be equal bottom with Leeds.

So next time you hear John Kingston in a post match interview saying he was ‘happy with the positives from the team’s performance’ after just being mullered in a no-hoper by the Tigers you will know he was actually saying ‘we didn’t expect to win that one and were trying a couple of different tactical options’.

So not such a bad start after all for those whose glasses are perpetually half full.