Harlequins
Deano’s GP Roadmap: Mid Season Review
By Quaking Quin
February 9 2009
It promised to be a roller-coaster season and results to date show that Quins still have plenty to do in the league if they are to achieve a play-off place. Results against Northampton have not produced the expected mass of GP points and have thrown our DOR’s plans a little of course.
When Deano and the coaches were sitting down in Roehampton back in August mulling over the coming season they would have prepared a chart just like the one below (based on the previous season’s finishes) to work out the games they needed to win to achieve top four or top six finishes. The chart helps him decide the must-win games, his player rotation plan over the weeks to come and assist the subsequent slant on his post-match offerings to the press.
Statistics from 10 years of GP rugby tell us that 40 points are needed to be absolutely safe from relegation, 52 are usually needed for 6th place, 62 points would give a play-off slot and 74 should mean a team ends up top. There are obvious variations each year and 0708 was an extreme with seven clubs jockeying for the top four slots – mainly because of the gulf with the bottom four clubs, none of which managed to get to 40 points, and Leeds being relegated on only 12. As we know Quins finished on 63 points and ended up 6th - but that’s what happens when you are a Quins fan!!
Back to this season…..
Two of Deano’s immediate pre-season bankers would have been home and away victories to the promoted ND1 team (Northampton Saints) – with a bonus point for the return encounter at the Stoop. Not achieving those results has left the DOR with a problem – instead of 9 big juicy GP points Quins have only managed 4 – and making up lost ground over the remainder of the season is not going to be that easy.
The first eleven matches of 0809 contained the tougher fixtures with Tigers and Wasps both having to be played home and away. Gaining points out of the obvious most difficult games (Tigers, Wasps and Glaws) would have been a bonus but not essential to achieving a play-off place if other easier games had gone according to plan. Running your eye down the 4th place column shows the ‘must win’ fixtures where Deano needed his best team out to do the business before the half way stage.
There are always going to be pluses and minuses. Unfortunately, Quins are now slightly behind the 33 point target after 12 games with 31 points, indicating a likely 5th place finish at the end of the season.
Having said the first half of the season was tougher then the obvious conclusion is that there are more points to be picked up in the easier second half. The trouble is Deano has already taken these into account in his reckoning in order to reach the magic 63 points. Therefore, if points are to be made up Quins not only have to win their bankers, they also have to put in extra effort to extract points from games Deano could have previously afforded to lose.
Again the table below shows that of the final 11 games Quins would have already been counting on winning 7 – three of these with a win bonus. To get back on track Quins now also need to win one of the four difficult games - Irish (a), Glaws (h), Bath (a) and Sale (a). Draw your own conclusions but winning 8 out of 11 GP games will be hard, then add the Heineken Cup to the equation and it becomes not only a mathematical but also a player-management problem for the coaching staff.
Good luck to Deano and the boys – let’s hope those points lost to the Saints don’t prove to be costly and that we can look forward to 80 minute rugby for the rest of the season.
GP Roadmap Table 08/09:| Rd | Game | Date | 11th Place | 6th place | 4th Place | 1st Place | Actual Points |
|||||
| Pts | Total | Pts | Total | Pts | Total | Pts | Total | |||||
| 1 | Sarries | 06/09/08 | a | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 (6th) |
| 2 | Bristol | 13/09/08 | h | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 9 (1st) |
| 3 | Glaws | 20/09/08 | a | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 10 (3rd) |
| 4 | Irish | 27/09/08 | h | 4 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 11 (5th) |
| 5 | Wuzz | 02/10/08 | a | 1 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 17 | 16 (4th) |
| 6 | Wasps | 16/11/08 | h | 1 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 21 | 20 (2nd) |
| 7 | Tigers | 22/11/08 | a | 0 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 22 | 20 (6th) |
| 8 | Bath | 30/11/08 | h | 1 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 26 | 24 (5th) |
| 9 | Saints | 20/12/08 | a | 4 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 31 | 24 (6th) |
| 10 | Tigers | 27/12/08 | h | 1 | 16 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 35 | 26 (6th) |
| 11 | Wasps | 04/01/09 | a | 0 | 16 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 35 | 27 (7th) |
| Halfway
|
|
16 |
|
23 |
|
28 |
|
35 |
|
|||
| 19 | Saints | 28/03/09 | h | 5 | 21 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 33 | 5 | 40 | 31 (6th) |
| 13 | Irish | 14/02/09 | a | 0 | 21 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 41 | |
| 14 | Glaws | 21/02/09 | h | 0 | 21 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 35 | 4 | 45 | |
| 15 | Bristol | 01/03/09 | a | 1 | 22 | 1 | 30 | 4 | 39 | 4 | 49 | |
| 16 | Sarries | 07/03/09 | h | 4 | 26 | 4 | 34 | 4 | 43 | 4 | 53 | |
| 17 | Falcon | 15/03/09 | a | 1 | 27 | 4 | 38 | 4 | 47 | 5 | 58 | |
| 18 | Sale | 22/03/09 | h | 4 | 31 | 4 | 42 | 4 | 51 | 4 | 62 | |
| 12 | Wuzz | 01/04/09 | h | 4 | 35 | 5 | 47 | 5 | 56 | 5 | 67 | |
| 20 | Bath | 04/04/09 | a | 0 | 35 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 68 | |
| 21 | Sale | 17/04/09 | a | 0 | 35 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 57 | 1 | 69 | |
| 22 | Falcon | 25/04/09 | h | 5 | 40 | 5 | 52 | 5 | 62 | 5 | 74 | |
| Final Total
|
|
40 |
|
52 |
|
62 |
|
74 |
|
|||
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Stumbleupon09/02/2009 16:36
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Gloucester seem to be blowing hot and cold, so again we could get 4 points from that.
Bristol, we should be winning that one, but whether we get a BP (having blown a few this season already) who knows
Sarries, really good or not so much, but a close game with a home win ( i hope)
Newcastle, should be w in, but you never really know up there, lots of teams come away with nothing, when they are much better.
Sale, i think they are too good and we'll lose but get close
Worcester, we should win that one
Bath, we are capable of beating them, we know it, but they are pretty good at home.
Sale Away, absolute losss, BP if we were lucky
Newcastle at home, banker 5 points, unless the great JW makes an appearance.
Much more painful was the loss to LI at home. I would hope that Deano has made setting the record straight a "must do" for the team.
Looking at Glaws's record, they're not that good away from home - they have slipped up against quality opposition fairly regularly (I am prepping for my pre-match report, as you can see). A win is by no means a certainty, but if the team plays to its ability it is doable.
However, sustaining this level of performance for the rest of the season will be challenging. A critical point will be the start of April, with Bath (a), Leinster (h) and Sale (a) all in a row.
A good run up til that point might allow Quins to take their feet off the gas for the Bath game - especially as Bath will also have one eye on a tough HEC QF.
So, in many ways, this week's match could set the tone for the rest of the season: win it, and Quins are heading in the right direction. Lose it, and there's an uphill struggle ahead.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2009:02:09:18:28:30 by poorfour.
I suppose any existing GP club has to look at any promoted team as a home and away win - if you can't beat what is effectively the bottom club your options for a top half of the table finish start to look grim. Everyone thought the same about Quins when they came back - trouble is some still do!!
Quins are currently in no-man's land with mediocre league form. The table seems to show it's going to be tough making up any lost ground. Quins progress this season revolves around getting extra points out of the top four clubs while taking for granted wins in all the other 'easier' six games - but Falcons away is never a pushover.
Very difficult seeing the team maintain the consistency now needed for top 4 and focus on the HC too. But you have to say all the games will be worth watching with that extra edge.
QQ your chart seems spookily accurate. If Quins had now played 13 games and been on 41 points they would indeed have been in equal first place with Glaws.
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to bleat about it all over the internet"
In keeping with the LI theme, without the pressure of the HC, I can see us pushing for prem honours in 09/10.
As for England, we are going to be 32 - 9 down with 10 minutes to play, Wales will get cocky and Hipkiss or Flutey will score an interception try under the posts for a final score or 32 - 16. Jonno will say he was disappointed with the result but there was encouraging signs of improvement.
The winning lottery numbers will be 4, 12, 14, 22, 31 and the bonus ball will be 27
It will rain for the next 4 days and nights
I am saving up for my semi-final ticket!
Looking at the remaining fixtures and our form to date, it is impossible for me to expect more than two away wins. However, I see no reason to expect us to lose again at home. 13 wins should get us very close to top 4.
The first priority has to be staying above Sarries. The home game against them is a real '8-pointer'.
Quote:Quint Eastwood
if you can't beat what is effectively the bottom club
well, that's what I'm saying. They are not the bottom club, by a long way. And if you just assume they will be because they were promoted, you're not doing very good analysis.
Quote:Quint Eastwood
Falcons away is never a pushover.
but Northampton should have been? Sorry, don't follow your line of thinking there at all.
It may be controversial but I don't see LI away as a 1 point either, I think that with their losses to the 6 nations easily equalling ours and bearing in mind how close our previous games against them have been we should be able to get 4 there too.
Not my analysis.
Northampton may be better than a bottom finish but it would have been safe to assume at the start of the season (when I think this chart was produced) that Saints would finish below Quins in the GP - therefore would naturally have anticipated to collect more than 4 points.
You also seem to miss the point about the easier games in the second half of the season. My understanding of the chart is that all the easy GP points have already been taken into account and the only way to make up lost ground is to take extra points off the current top four teams.
Rocker
'Glos are a bit of a shambles' ? - hiccup in the HC maybe, but they beat Irish last time out and are only top of the GP. A win is possible for Quins but you can bet your boots Dean Ryan has always has this game down as a win for them in his own version of the Roadmap.
To clarify shambles, they have some key players not playing at the top of their game, they have just signed (presumably for quite some money) "King" Carlos, Ryan Lamb isn't playing well they've lost their 2nd choice 9. There is nearly as much of a query hanging over their props and hooker as there is over ours, hooker especially, Titteral can't @#$%& Azam can't throw (or run about much any more), Props, Nick Wood has looked good but can he do it for 80 minutes and hasn't been starting recently.
Quote:I know, and I wasn't suggesting it was. My "you" was impersonal.Quint Eastwood
Not my analysis.
Quote:Quint Eastwood
Northampton may be better than a bottom finish but it would have been safe to assume at the start of the season (when I think this chart was produced) that Saints would finish below Quins in the GP - therefore would naturally have anticipated to collect more than 4 points.
I'm not arguing with the original predictions. My only (minor) quibble is with QQ's assertion (in the text) that Quins are off the pace entirely because of their performances against Saints, who should have been dispatched because they were the promoted team. I still think Leicester at home was an opportunity lost, and others have mentioned the LI game.
Quote:Quint Eastwood
You also seem to miss the point about the easier games in the second half of the season. My understanding of the chart is that all the easy GP points have already been taken into account and the only way to make up lost ground is to take extra points off the current top four teams.
No point missed. Number 1, there should be plenty of wins coming up and I am looking forward to them. Number 2, Quins slipped because they went through a run of poor form. That run seems to be over, and I see no reason why they can't get back ahead of the target as they were at the start of the season. They are very capable of beating the teams in the top 4. The GP just isn't so predictable as to mean that a TWO POINT deficit at this stage heralds the end of our season.
Just shows how useful the analysis is to the coaches throughout the season and allows the DoR to be more relaxed about results and performances if ahead of targets.
On Saturday Deano must have been extremely pleased about the result but hid this by saying he thought the performabnce was good (ie. psychological boast to the players) but didn't talk about the significance of the result.
If Quins win next week we can expect him to say the club is working hard towards a top four place - in the knowledge that with a comparitively easy run-in he can realistically be looking for a second or third place finish - even with the odd hiccup and HC game to deflect the focus.
If we lose to Glaws then the emphasis will shift to 'the first priority being to secure a HC position for next season (knowing Quins would still be ahead of that particular target).
Bet you thought Deano makes this stuff up at the post match Press Conferences.
a) He has never looked at CAW. Didn't know what it was.
b) When we mentioned roadmap,he said he has no such thing. The Mgt set targets for each game in terms of performance against the opposition, but are related to individual performance, or front row/back line. Reducing penalty counts, winning lineouts etc...
Next thing you will be telling me that Santa Claus doesn't exist
Oh yes
Deano is not going to turn to the CAW site for advice or eagerly turn to the Roadmap - like checking the Lotto numbers on Sunday morning.
He is, however, being a little economic with the truth.
While his job is to prepare the players for each game, he has said in the past that the coaching staff divide the GP season into blocks of 5 and 6 and set targets for the players over that period.
Presumably the DOR doesn't say I want you to win every game at the start of every block. What he says is - we are looking to get 18 points from the next 6 games. ie - Win 4 and pick up a couple of bonus points. Deano would have made that decision by studying who they were playing and where, and looked at how many points or wins they need for HC or play-off place.
In other words a Roadmap.
You may recall Mark Evans prediction at a Meet the Management Evening in the relegation season, when there were 7 or 8 GP games still to play, and he said Quins needed 37 points to stay up and he was confident that they would make it. He had a roadmap and calculated where each of the remaining points were to come from. unfortunately we were relegated on 38 points. Ho hum....
It is inconceivable in the professional era, when clubs spend vast sums on analysing everything involved in the game, that the management do not have a basic tool, similar to the roadmap/business plan, to set targets and monitor performance over the season.
