By kwin
November 21 2002

The fourth in my occasional look at the spread-betting market, focusing on the ZP index. But first the traditional word of warning: my most profitable betting friend swears blind that he takes every tip I give him and does the opposite (you have been warned!)

Here's the current prices for the ZP Index at SPIN (remember its 1st: 100 points 2nd: 80 points 3rd: 60 points 4th: 40 points 5th: 30 points 6th: 20 points 7th: 10 points 8th: 5 points 9th-12th: 0 points)

TEAM.............19 Nov..1 Oct....11 Sept....OPENING
Gloucester.......89-92...81-84.....75-78..... 65-68
Leicester........81-84.. 72-75.....83-86..... 84-87
Northampton......40-43...48-51.....47-50..... 50-53
London Wasps.....35-38...47-50.....30-33..... 29-32
Leeds Tykes......32-35....9-12......6- 9...... 1- 3
Sale.............30-33...33-36.....26-29..... 27-30
Harlequins.......10-13....3- 6......9-12..... 13-16
Saracens..........8-11...20-23.....32-35..... 14-17
Bath..............3- 5....5- 8......6- 9...... 8-11
London Irish......1- 3....5- 8.....13-16..... 30-33
Bristol...........1- 3....2- 4......2- 5...... 8-11
Newcastle.......0.5- 2....3- 6......2- 5...... 6-9
 

PROFIT AND LOSS

Last month I left you with three tips
- Buy Tigers
- Sell Gloucester
- Hold on to that Wasps long position

So how did I do?

Buy Tigers:  Bought at 75, now worth 81 for a six point profit (yippee) but this isn't the time to sell - Leicester will win the league (notwithstanding their fly-half, KevT) so this is a HOLD

Sell Gloucester: Sold at 81, now would cost you 92 to close out. Not good, a 11 point loss. BUT Glaws won't win the league. Hold that short position.  If you weren't short then....you should be now. This is a SELL

Hold Wasps:  Oh Dear!  Wasps have not performed for me. This was easily my worst tip. They were worth 47 then, and a measly 35 now. So should have sold them last time. BUT don't forget I bought Wasps at 33 so I'm still sitting on a profit...and I won't close that out now. They look cheap again to me....

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

The biggest gainer since 1 Oct has been Leeds. Back then, even though they were second in the league, you could still buy them at 12, and now the price is 32-35. I can't believe I didn't tip them - though to be fair I did say they looked cheap. What now? Well there's still some upside there....

The biggest faller  (apart from Wasps) is Sarries. Another 12 point fall. Notice any connection between these two? Yes. It's us, and we've seen a healthy 7 point rise (and still cheap)

TIPS

So here are my tips (and these are long term now..the market will be nowhere near as volatile in the second half of the season

• Hold Tigers (not too late to buy either)
• Hold the short position in Gloucester (not too late to sell)
• and....dare I say it, against my better judgement - BUY QUINS!

Lastly, a foray into the International market.  Tomorrow's betting at Sporting Index for the England game, points supremacy, opens at England over, 14-17 points.

Now, any gambler will tell you: look at the form books. And here's what I see

• South Africa have never (apparently) gone home from a tour without a win
• England have three times in a row choked at the last hurdle in the Grand Slam
• South Africa have a habit of bringing out something unexpected for England

It 14 points, sorry England, swing low and all that....it's  a sell!

Good Luck.
To find out more about spread betting...try  Sporting Index