Cardiff at Home


By Quins4life
January 14 2016

Wow. What. A. Win. In a game that most pundits had done as an away win, Saracens rolled in the Twickenham Stoop on Saturday afternoon on the top of the world. Unbeaten domestically and in Europe, they were the in form side in Europe and not many team had got close to them. Only one side had finished a game within 5 points of Sarries, so I am sure not even the most biased of Quins fans could 100% believe that Quins would win. 

However, I don’t think anyone can begrudge a fantastic win that could be the makings of this Quins side. The obvious turning point in the game was the red card of Rhys Gill for a horrendous tip tackle on George Lowe. However, I disagree people saying it had a major effect on the result. Quins were building and I firmly believe Quins would have gone on to win. We were the better team for the majority of the game and I would have come away feeling very disappointed if we had lost. We looked so dangerous and our willingness to play attacking rugby paid off. We were clinical and ruthless, two things that Sarries are famed for and we put them under a lot of pressure. The atmosphere was fantastic and feisty, the best I have experience at the Stoop for a while and it is result I will remember for a long time. 

Anyway the season must go on, and next up we return to the last two round of European action against Cardiff Blues at the Stoop. Just a quick recap of what has happened so far this European campaign. Quins have been in form so far in Europe having won 4 out of 4; all with try scoring bonus points. This includes the reverse of this fixture at the Cardiff Arms Park, where Quins sneaked a last second bonus point through a Danny Care try. In our other European fixtures, we managed a bonus point win in awful conditions in round 1 against Montpellier, and in the back-to-back fixtures Quins smashed Italians minnows Calvisano, earning two more bonus points. So where does this all leave us? Well it leaves us top of our pool on 20 points, 9 points clear of Cardiff in second place. This means we are in a very strong position in the pool and only need a point to secure qualification for the knockout stages. Cardiff will need to beat us and not let us get a bonus point to realistically be able to qualify. So all in all, unless we have a complete disaster in the next two weeks, we should have one foot in the next round. 

Now on to our opponents, the Cardiff Blues. Since we last played back in November, the form of Cardiff has improved and won both of their games over Christmas. Last time out they beat Pro12 leaders Llanelli Scarlets in an impressive 29-27 win at the Arms Park. However the most important thing about this win was that it was two weeks ago as they had a week off last weekend as their game against Munster was postponed due to Munster’s rearranged European game against Stade Francias was last weekend. This means they should come into the game fresh, which could give them an advantage as we had a bruising game against Sarries. 

Team Selections 

Well after a bruising encounter last weekend against Saracens, I expect a few changes to be made. In the front row, I expect Marler to continue due to lack of alternatives however I expect Ward to return to the side and, if fit, Collier could return as Jones played a full 80 minutes. In the second row, I expect Matthews to continue but I expect Merrick to come in to replace Horwill, who seemingly has picked up a couple of niggles over the past few weeks and it makes sense to rest him. In the back row, I think we should stick with the same one that started against Saracens. I liked the balance of the trio of Robshaw, Wallace and Clifford and would like to see it. Luamanu was rumoured to be nearing fitness so he could be an option, and Easter deserves as much time as possible to recover from the personal issues and I wish him all the best during this difficult time. 

In the backs, Care will continue at 9 and expect Botica to come in for Evans who picked up a knock last week. Botica was fantastic last weekend when he came on and it is now time for him to do it when starting a match. Its not often I think Botica did a better job than Evans could have done. In the centres, I expect Roberts and Lowe to continue their blossoming partnership with Sloan and perhaps Hopper getting a run out the following week. I then expect the back three to continue, with all three of them impressing last week. I thought Chisholm looked fantastic and even better than his form before all his injuries. 

My Quins team to face Cardiff; Marler, Ward, Collier, Matthews, Merrick, Robshaw, Wallace, Clifford; Care (c), Botica, Chisholm, Roberts, Lowe, Yarde, Brown. 


Cardiff’s last team vs Scarlets 

Dan Fish; Alex Cuthbert, Cory Allen, Rey Lee-Lo, Tom James; Rhys Patchell, Lloyd Williams; Gethin Jenkins (capt), Kristian Dacey, Taufa'ao Filise; Jarrad Hoeata, James Down; Josh Turnbull, Josh Navidi, Manoa Vosawai. 

Above is the team Cardiff put out in their last game two weeks ago against Scarlets. It is pretty much the best team they could put out considering the injuries they gad However, there is potential for the likes of Wales internationals Sam Warburton and Gareth Anscombe returning from injury, as well as rising star Ellis Jenkins. 


On to the match itself. Well I think it is going to be a tough match for Quins after a very bruising encounter against Sarries last weekend. Adding to this the fact that Cardiff Blues have had two weeks off will meansthey are going to be a lot fresher than us. They are also in pretty decent form and have some dangerous players in their side. 

That being said, the confidence gained by Quins after beating Sarries will be fantastic and I am sure the players will be buzzing going into the match. At the end of the day we are under very little pressure due to our position in the group. For any realistic chance of qualifying in 1st place Cardiff need to come to the Stoop and beat us through scoring 4 or more tries, and I think not let us within 7 points. Therefore I think it will be a very open game, which will only play into our hands. Also if you consider how comfortable we found it in the reverse fixture when we played a weaker team, I am confident our stronger side will get the win which will qualify us and secure a home quarter final. With the weather seemingly improving this weekend I think we will get another bonus point as well. It is becoming a very exciting time at the club at the moment and lets hope it continues. 

Score Prediction; Quins 34 Cardiff 10

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Cardiff at Home
Discussion started by ComeAllWithin.co.uk , 15/01/2016 11:53
ComeAllWithin.co.uk
15/01/2016 11:53
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talkshowhost86
15/01/2016 11:59
What's the situation with the next round points-wise? Do we just need to come top or is there some incentive (other than the fun of it) to go out and give it our all in the next two games?

Quartermaster
16/01/2016 11:47
2. TOURNAMENT FORMATPOOL MATCHES
2.1 For the pool stage, the clubs are divided into five pools of four.

2.2 Four points for a win, two points for a draw. A bonus point will be awarded to a club scoring four or more tries and to a club losing by seven points or fewer.

2.3 The five pool winners and three best-placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided as follows:
(a) The pool winner will be the club with the highest number of match points in each pool. The best-placed runners-up will be the three clubs with the highest number of match points out of the five clubs that finish second in their respective pools. For the quarter-finals, the pool winners will be ranked 1 to 5 and the best-placed runners-up 6 and 8 by reference to the number of match points earned.

(b) If two clubs in the same pool are equal on match points at the end of the pool stage, their ranking will be determined by the results of the two matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
(i) the club with the greater number of match points from those matches; or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches: or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches.
.
(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended under Disciplinary Rules in the pool stage; or
(iv) if unresolved, by drawing lots.

KNOCKOUT STAGE
2.4 The clubs ranked 1 to 4 will have home advantage for the quarter-finals as follows:

Club 1 v Club 8 (QF1) Club 4 v Club 5 (QF2)
Club 3 v Club 6 (QF3) Club 2 v Club 7 (QF4)

NB The new format for the semi-final matches in the Challenge Cup recognises performances by clubs during the pool stages as well as the achievement of a winning a quarter-final match away from home.

The winner of QF1 will play the winner of QF2 in one semi-final, and the winner of QF3 will play the winner of QF4 in the other semi-final as follows:

Semi-final 1: winner QF1 v winner QF2
Semi-final 2: winner QF3 v winner QF4

The semi-final matches will be played at venues designated by EPCR, but the following clubs will have home venue advantage in their respective semi-final matches:

(a) For Semi-final 1

If the clubs ranked 1 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 1 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 1 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 8 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home venue advantage

(b) For Semi-final 2

If the clubs ranked 3 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 2 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 3 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 7 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home venue advantage

The final match will be played at a venue designated by EPCR.

2.5 In the event of a tie at full-time in the quarter-finals, semi-finals or final, extra time of 10 minutes each way will be played. If the scores remain tied, the winner will be determined as follows:
(a) the club that scored the most tries in the match (including extra time) or
(b) if equal, by a place-kick competition.

rdc
17/01/2016 10:30
An excellent preview, thanks

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