By Keith Jenner
June 1 2004
We took a rugby novice to her first game on Saturday. As we were leaving the game I explained to her that it was almost a typical Quins match, except usually it is us who concede the last minute try.
Meanwhile, the press were talking about Quins as a team who fight right to the end of a game these days. Following the last minute win against Bath a few weeks ago Quins are really starting to look like a side that are capable of pulling unlikely victories out of the bag.
But how fair was my comment? Have Quins struggled to close out games in the past? How unusual was the last minute win against Montferrand? I decided to do some investigation, based on the previous three seasons.
The first conclusion that I reached when looking back at Quins record was that this really isn't a very easy thing to form any definite opinions about. Each game is different and whilst some are easy to interpret, others aren't so simple.
I quickly decided that generally, games can be split into three types. In most cases, one team can be named as the most likely winner quite a while before the end and that team goes on to complete the victory. These games generally don't say much about either sides battling spirit and therefore I haven't taken these games into account.
The next most common type are those games where a team hangs on to a slim lead, despite being under pressure from their opponents. These can be satisfying to watch if it is your team who win, but very frustrating if you are on the losing end. These type of games make up the majority of close games.
Finally, there are those matches like Saturdays cup final where a team snatches the lead at the death. These are actually quite rare and can be exhilarating if your team wins and devastating if it goes against you.
When looking through the games over the last three seasons, it soon became clear that a lot of games don't fit precisely into these categories. Take, for example the Powergen Cup semi-final against London Irish two seasons ago. Quins held the lead towards the end of the game but were defeated after London Irish scored two penalties, so the obvious conclusion would be that Quins had let the tie slip away. However, when you consider that we had come back from 26-0 down to lead 27-26, the match surely can't be counted against the teams battling qualities. I decided that the good and bad points of the above game evened themselves out, but it is very much a matter of opinion.
Finally, before I begin I would like to stress that I am not criticising the effort of players, both past and present. The ability to win games at the death or to hold onto slim leads is down to far more than mere effort.
Let us start by looking at games which have been won or lost in the final minutes.
Amazingly, I couldn't find a single game in the 2001/02 and 2002/03 seasons where a last minute try snatched victory for Quins. There was, however the Powergen Cup semi-final against Leicester. Quins were 4 points behind with only 5 minutes remaining and a player in the sin bin before two Paul Burke penalties (one from over 50m out) gave Quins the victory. I should also note the away match against Newcastle in 2001 when a late drop goal from Burke levelled the scores at the end of a very disappointing game.
In contrast, there have been three games this season where Quins scored at the death to win games. The first was away to Newcastle in January when Ceri Jones' try gave Quins a 29-25 victory and the there were Simon Keogh's last minute winners against Bath and Montferrand.
Examples of Quins conceding last minute tries are rather easier to find in previous seasons, although there was just one in 2001/02, when a last minute try by London Irish at the Madejski Stadium levelled the scores. Dan Luger managed to charge down the conversion attempt to salvage the draw.
In 2002/03 there were three of these matches, starting with the first game of the season against Gloucester which was close and Quins had a one point lead with two minutes to play before Trevor Woodman's converted try gave victory to the visitors.
A couple of months later, the match against Saracens at Vicarage Road started disastrously for Quins who found themselves 26-3 down after 30 minutes. An excellent fight back followed and Quins took a one point lead towards the end of the game. However, a last minute try was again conceded to give the points to Saracens.
Finally, there was the game against Leeds at Headingley in April 2003. In this match, Quins were 22-16 ahead as the game went into extra time. After pressure from Leeds, they were awarded a penalty, and Dan Luger was sin-binned (a decision which was later overturned). From the penalty, Leeds scored a try which was converted to give them the victory.
It may be unfair to count these last two these games against Quins fighting spirit, as they showed plenty of that to get back into the game against Saracens and could claim that the referee had a big influence in the Leeds victory, but the fact remains that the tries were conceded, and no similar victories could be found during the whole season.
Looking at this season, it hasn't been all success. There were two games where late tries were scored against us. Firstly, there was the match away to Sale where a late converted try from the home team meant the game was drawn, and also the away game at Wasps where the match was lost after a try in injury time.
Overall though, when looking at the ability to score late tries there has been a definite improvement. There have still been the disappointments of losing a lead at the end of the game, but for the first time the pluses outweighed the minuses this season.
So, we have looked at the times when a team has failed to hold onto a slim lead, but what about those times when they have succeeded. Again Quins have had more success this season than previously, but only just.
In the previous two seasons, the successes and failures have pretty well evened themselves out, perhaps the biggest disappointment being the game against Leicester at Welford Road in Autumn 2001 when Quins had an excellent chance of defeating an under strength Tigers team, but couldn't find the winning score despite having opportunities at the end.
This season, Quins have managed to hold on in close games a number of times, for example, London Irish and Newcastle at home at the beginning of the season, Leeds away and Saracens at home. There was also the Parker Pen semi-final against Montferrand as well. Meanwhile, there were a few games that didn't go our way, Leicester at home, Gloucester away and both defeats to Leeds.
There have also been a number of impressive fight backs by Quins which haven't necessarily resulted in victory.
In both 2001/02 and 2002/03 there were good late surges in the away games against Bristol, which resulted in bonus points being earned. However, this season there have been a number of examples, such as away to Saracens when we came back from 39-16 to 39-33 and Northampton away when, despite not playing well, we came back to within just one point.
Another two games deserve a mention, despite the fact that they didn't result in a win or bonus points, as they did show fighting spirit. Firstly there was the game at home against Sale, when two late tries almost earned a bonus point (there was just a missed conversion in it) and against Leicester in the wildcard playoff. At one point the Sky commentators were talking about a 50 point defeat, but an impressive performance at the end made the final scoreline much more respectable.
These observations show that Quins have had more success in close games this season than in the previous two. This impression is exaggerated by the fact that the last 5 matches (4 of which have been televised) have all included fight backs of some description. From a team which had barely managed a handful in the previous two seasons this is an amazing statistic.
The improvement has therefore really only shown itself in the last month. If I was to have done this exercise in mid April then I would probably have come up with a different conclusion.
So, why has this change occurred? Well, there are a number of factors, but there appears to be a much improved team spirit at The Stoop lately. This has a lot to do with the leadership of Andre Vos and I get the impression that the players are gelling a little more than previously.
It is too early to say whether this is a new Quins. The indications are very good and it is encouraging that there shouldn't be too many changes to the playing side next season. It appears that the core of the side are dedicated to making things happen at Quins and hopefully next season they will be able to continue the progress that has been made.