By Prof
February 17 2006

There are just eight games left in the Guinness Premiership so there are still another possible forty points maximum available. The teams at the bottom of the table will be starting to get jittery as the 12 place relegation spot looms ever closer.

I'm just looking at the bottom five teams this week even though Newcastle aren't exactly safe and with the news that Wilkinson is injured again it looks like he won't be helping them much this season.

Richard Hill at Bristol has said that he wants his team to play more rugby rather than the the conservative game plan that they have been using to little success in recent weeks.

Leeds have a terribly tricky trip away to Sale, Bath are at home to London Irish, Bristol host Wasps and the final game is between Northampton and Saracens. This final game is obviously the big one, it's a real 8 or 10 pointer. With an away win for Leeds looking rather unlikely a win for either Sarries or Saints will definitely ease the pressure on the winning side.

Bath are always tricky to beat in the mud at the Rec and London Irish will have their work cut out to win there against a Bath team with their internationals back. Wasps have to go to Bristol with the majority of their internationals back but they still have a couple of inexperienced players in the XV. It will be interesting to see if Bristol can play the expansive game that they want, if they do they could do what Northampton did in the last round and give Wasps a real scare.

I can't see Leeds closing on those above them and I think Saracens will sink further into trouble.

Looking at the run ins that the five teams have:

Everyone has a tricky game on the last day of the season but looking at the other days Northampton play 3 of the other bottom five; Saracens play 3; Bath 2; Bristol 3 and Leeds only 1. So Leeds have a terribly hard run in and Northampton probably have the easiest. Except for the game against Saracens I can't see Leeds winning any other games so they are in real trouble as they have to win two more games than anyone above them, even with Saracens and Bristol struggling to win I can't see anyone being overtaken by Leeds and it certainly doesn't look like the nailbiting ending that we were a part of last season.

Looking back at this stage last season we can see that Quins were where Leeds are now on 20 points after 14 games, although Leeds have an extra win. Leeds fought well last season and got out of trouble by playing some expansive rugby - the same ploy that Bristol will try now. The main difference between this season and last is that Quins had three teams within five points of them but Leeds only have one.

Of course all of this could be purely academic if it turns out that that the Premiership will expand and ring fence which isn't completely beyond the realms of possibility. If so could Leeds be saved from a return to ND1 twice?