Surely not again?

By Lawrence Aggleton
June 22 2011

This September and October, the 7th Rugby World Cup will take place in New Zealand. This is the first trip for the William Webb Ellis Cup to the Land of the Long White Cloud since the inaugral competition in 1987 and, remarkably, guttingly or humourously depending on your viewpoint, New Zealand have failed to successfully win 'Bill' since that first tournament. So, what are the states of the nations competing?

 Pool A

New Zealand

Last World Cup – Quarter Finalists (lost to France)

World Ranking – 1

For the nation with some of the most naturally talented rugby players in history, New Zealand's rugby world cup history is one of choking underperformance. Regularly sweeping all before them in the interim years, their ability to throw away clinch games (especially against France) has been truly astounding. Last time out they were determined to be ruthless with the team make up and be perfectly prepared. Well they were too ruthless (ditching captain and inspiration Tana Umaga after the Lions tour) and overprepared (All Blacks were wrapped in cotton wool and as a result not exposed to the atmosphere of tight games). While smoothly cruising through their pool, they came up against an underperforming French team with no expectations on their shoulders and promptly shot themselves in both feet. The lack of intensity in their cotton-wool Super Rugby and NPC games led to just the sort of lack of mental edge that caused them to fail to take a drop goal opportunity at the end of their QF as they crashed out again.

But they can't blow it again, can they? At home and with the two best players in the world in Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, they really should win this. The only potential weakness is a lack of depth behind Carter. McCaw is hard to replace, but there's a bunch of great back rowers in New Zealand. However the talent falls off a cliff at 10 after Carter. Bath-bound Steven Donald has been dropped as out-of-form and, in many eyes, just not good enough. But there's no deep experience beyond him - and the World Cup is no place for kids.

Prediction: Champions

France

Last World Cup – Semi Finalists (lost to England)

World Ranking – 6

Bof. Honestly, what do you do with France? Flair and beautiful rugby, allied with schizophrenic selection, a tendancy to just not turn up, or when you least expect it to smash the strongest rugby citadels. After losing to Italy in the 6 Nations, coach Lievremont branded the team 'cowards' and has really wielded the axe when it comes to the World Cup Squad. Last time out at the World Cup was a perfect reflection of the French team, losing to Argentina at home in the first pool game, before pulling the shock of the tournament out by beating New Zealand in Cardiff and then shrugging their collective shoulders and losing timidly to a limited England team.

So, this time out? With no pressure, they are one of a very limited number of teams who could trouble New Zealand, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on it. So group-runners up, and a probable quarter final against England. Their backs are very talented and their back row superb, but their mental blind spot against England will show again.

Prediction: Quarter Final loss to England

Tonga

Last World Cup - 3^rd in Group

World Ranking – 16

Last World Cup Tonga came awfully close to beating South Africa in the pool stages, but finally succumbed 30-25. Recent results have been poor, losing to England Saxons and Italy A and last year only narrowly beating Chile. Their world ranking has only been heading downwards and they look likely to really struggle to avoid finishing bottom of the group.

Prediction – bottom of group.

Canada

Last World Cup – Bottom of Pool

World Ranking – 15

A catastrophic last world cup where Canada failed to win a single game for the first time has been put behind them and a reasonably strong showing in this year's Churchill Cup has left them in a decent enough position. This pool, however, is split between the tier 1s and the tier 2s. France and New Zealand will comfortably deal with them and Canada will be left scrapping with Japan and Tonga for third.

Prediction – fourth in group

Japan

Last World Cup – Fourth in Pool

World Ranking – 13

Scrapping with Canada in 2007 is likely to be replaced by... scrapping with Canada in 2011. However the Japanese are definitely an improving nation, have won the Asian Five Nations for the past 4 years and were only a point behind winners Samoa in the 2010 Pacific Nations Cup. Money is attracting top quality players to Japanese leagues and coach John Kirwan is experienced at getting the best out of tier 2 teams.

Prediction – third in group

Pool B

England

Last World Cup – Runners Up (lost to South Africa)

World Ranking – 5

A disorganised and uninspiring England team somehow pulled themselves to the World Cup final last time by pure mental strength alone. Rather than use that as a launchpad to push the national team forward, the RFU decided to preside over a farce of a process – promising to support coach Brian Ashton while plotting to replace him with the untested Martin Johnson. After three years of plodding and stumbling, England finally won their first 6 Nations, albeit tripping and face-planting over the line in a loss to Ireland.

Decent in the pack in the pack without being truly world-beating, solid at half-back and insipid at centre, England's biggest threat is their back three. Still, they've lucked out on the easiest group and an eminently winnable route to the final. Win their group, a Quarter Final against the French and a potential Semi-Final against Ireland or Australia is their reward. Then on to the final where they'll promptly get spanked well and truly by the All Blacks.

Prediction – Runners Up

Argentina

Last World Cup – Semi-Finalists (lost to South Africa)

World Ranking – 8

After their superb outing last World Cup – and a highest ever world ranking of third, Los Pumas have lost a number of key experienced players and dropped down the rankings. From next year they will join the SANZAR teams to form a Four Nations tournament, but they still have major troubles with clubs in their home country. The vast majority of their players play in France, and an amateur-minded union at home has created a change of pace that is as glacial as the ice-fields of Andean Patagonia.

An historic win over England in Twickenham in 2006 is unlikely to be be repeated, but expect them to have too much for Scotland, Georgia and Romania. A quarter final date against the All Blacks is likely to give them a taste of their Four Nations future, with a bad loss.

Prediction – Quarter Final loss to New Zealand.

Scotland

Last World Cup – Quarter Finalists (lost to Argentina)

World Ranking – 9

A close win over Italy got Scotland out of their group last time out, but expect that to be a step too far this time. Hard running and strong, Scotland are the Rooks of World Rugby, great at running in straight lines up and down and side-to-side, but next-to-no subtlety or creativity. Honest and well coached, expect them to be over powered by England, run out comfortable winners against Romania and Georgia, but to not be able to score enough tries to overhaul Argentina.

Prediction – Third in group.

Georgia

Last World Cup – Fourth in Group

World Ranking – 14

The Lelos came awfully close to beating Ireland last time out, being camped on their line for the last five minutes and narrowly failing to register what would have been the biggest win of their history. Georgia have had a strong winning streak recently, beating Russia, Romania, Portugal, Spain and the Ukraine. They'll give Scotland a bit of a scare, and then will fight with Romania for the Wooden Spoon. Expect them to avoid it.

Prediction – Fourth in group

Romania

Last World Cup – Fourth in Group

World Ranking – 18

Under Ceaucescu, Romania were an up and coming nation on a par with Italy, but the two nations fortunes have strongly diverged. Now struggling against the likes of Uruguay and Georgia in test matches, they'll have to pull out the performance of their recent history to avoid the bottom of the group.

Prediction – Bottom of the group.

Part 2 to follow...

Rugby World Cup Pool by Pool Preview – Part 1

Discussion started by BathRugbyEre.co.uk , 22/06/2011 21:51

BathRugbyEre.co.uk
22/06/2011 21:51

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:07:02:19:43:37 by Glen The Ed.

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OBinexile
23/06/2011 08:47

I think the Argentine-Scotland game will be close. I think the Tonga team will be stronger than in recent years - depending on who bothers to turn out for them.
Otherwise pretty spot on.
Looking forward to the Pac Nations Cup starting soon to get an idea of quality of Fiji/Samoa/Tonga/Japan.
Interesting to see comments that the Fiji home-grown players have benefited from the cup competition in April/May where they played development teams from NZ and Aus superugby sides - and mainly lost. Good that games were played at all. Why don't Russia/Ukraine etc play v development sides in British Isles/France?

OBinExile

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OldmanofDorset
23/06/2011 10:35

New Zealand to be re-christened the "Rainbow Warriors" - sunk by the French again

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Bod
23/06/2011 10:37

Very good OmoD!
I've a sneaking suspicion that LA's prediction for England might be spot on!

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noidea
23/06/2011 11:54

I think the Kiwis may well slip up against the Boks, who seem top have more strength in depth if P Divvy selects his best team.
I suspect that the Kiwis only need couple of key injuries to scupper their chances (isn't McCaw injured at present, and a few others are not really showing great form)

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RedSaint
23/06/2011 12:31

Quote:

OBinexile
Why don't Russia/Ukraine etc play v development sides in British Isles/France?

We've been down in NZ this winter and our three best club sides - who supply nearly all the national team - have played French, Irish, and English teams with increasing regularity. We have also used the univesity set-up in South Africa in the past.

England Counties visited in 2007.

In addition to the Churchill Cup, our RWC warm-up will see us play Northampton, Gloucester, Ospreys and Newport.

Ukrainian rugby has little money and about as far away from Russia as we are from Italy.

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OBinexile
23/06/2011 20:41

Good to hear RedSaint. Clearly gets as much press as the Fiji/Tonga/Samoa development team games in NZ/Aus. I know the Russian National side had a few games against NZ development sides as well. Just aware that Bath IIs didn't seem to play any of these games.

OBinExile

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