Cardiff Blues
World Cup Preview - Pools A and B
By Craig Muncey and @The Blues Life
September 9 2015
Over the next few days a few writers run through their thoughts on the upcoming World Cup and predictions on how the teams will fare. Starting off in this article with Pool A and Pool B, which have been put together by myself and a writer friend from Twitter @TheBluesLife, who has had previous articles used on our sites. Early next week, I will publish Pools C and D and then finally just days before the tournament begins the writers will give you their thoughts on their own individual World Fifteen's prior to the tournament getting underway
Pool A
Wales
Two time semi finalists in this competition, Wales go into this very tough group with a few injuries picked up in the warm up matches. Alun Wyn Jones injury is believed to be a minor injury, which potentially only means could miss the opener against Uruguay, however, Rhys Webb and Leigh Halfpenny's injuries were so serious they will miss the World Cup and looking like many months on the sidelines for both. Will be a big loss for Wales but also a loss to the whole tournament, you want the best players playing in World Cups and those two are amongst the best players in their chosen positions.
Many fans and pundits feel that the loss of Webb and Halfpenny in a group as tough as pool A is the deciding factor in whether Wales qualify or not. I can understand this to a point as a group with Wales, England and Fiji in, where only two can advance is tough enough anyway without losing two of your first team players, I however, still believe Wales will qualify. Halfpenny is a quality rugby player, but Liam Williams who will now step in at full back is in my opinion is a greater attacking threat, and is also a strong defender so gives Wales more of a deep threat in attack. Wales will miss out on Halfpenny and his unerring place kicking, but Dan Biggar is a very capable place kicker with a high percentage over last seasons in Pro 12, and is a player high on confidence, I can see him being a very capable replacement goal kicker.
With Webb out, then the scrum half position is wide open, but all three are very capable players in their own right, yes Webb will be missed but others can come in and do a very good job for the team.
Halfpenny and Webb can be replaced and I would fear Wales chances more if Taulupe Faletau and Alun Wyn-Jones were out of the tournament, the player pool for those positions are limited and in my opinion would have a much bigger impact on their chances.
Player To Watch
Taulupe Faletau - The player has immense talent and if fit and motivated can propel himself to be talked about in the same breath as other players in his position such as Sergio Parisse, Duane Vermaelen and Kieran Read, that is how highly I rate him. Is key to the game plan and the main ball carrier in the pack.
Prediction - Quarter Finals. Can see Wales getting to this stage before coming unstuck against South Africa in a close affair.
Fiji
Seriously talented rugby players run amok in this team with a high percentage playing at top clubs in Europe and the Southern Hemisphere. Can they cause an upset yet again in a World Cup? Course they can, and first up to face the test is England in the opening match which will be very interesting to view. In my opinion they will push England, Australia and Wales in their pool matches for big periods of the eighty minute matches. Fiji three times have made the quarter finals and will hope they can do it again.
As mentioned at start of piece they have some quality rugby players such as Leicester's Vereniki Goneva, Glasgow's Leone Nakarawa and Bath's Nikola Matawalu.
Player To Watch
Nemani Nadolo - Cousin of Australian winger Lote Tuquri, Nadolo is a fearsome sight with ball in hand. Scored 12 tries in 14 appearances this season for The Crusaders in Super Rugby. The man is six foot five and weighs in at more than nineteen and a half stone, should not be allowed to play wing in my opinion at that size, I predict will make a major impression this World Cup.
Prediction - Will be moments of fantastic rugby and for neutrals will be crowd favourites, but see them falling short in such a tough group, so predicting group stages only.
Uruguay
Have not made the World Cup Finals for 12 years, qualified by beating Russia on aggregate in the final qualifying round. They are coached by Pablo Lemoine, who is arguably their best player of all time. Lemoine played tight prop for Bristol before moving onto Stade Francais, helping them win the French title twice.
Some of the Uruguayan players play in France and Argentina but a lot are home based. My knowledge of Uruguayan rugby is limited but they are known to have a strong pack of forwards. I am sure they will give it there all in the World Cup, but the more recognised teams in this group will look at Uruguay as the team they put as many points as they can against, as who knows points difference could come into play.
Player To Watch
Rodrigo Capo Ortega - Can play lock or flanker, Ortega captained Castres in France last season just showing how highly this player is regarded. A big tough veteran, who will not take a backward step.
Prediction - Group stages. Los Teros will be passionate and give it everything they have but ultimately will come up short.
England
The host nation, previous winners and also has been losing finalists in another World Cup, expectations are high, but can this team cope with this pressure in the group they have been drawn in?
For me England still have some decisions to make on what there best fifteen is, such as who plays ten, who plays eight and also decisions in the second row. Also England need to decide on a pattern they want to play, do they want to go wide early and play with pace, or play a more forward orientated game and go wide when they have gone through forward drives and phases? I personally think England should play a tight forward driven game plan with Owen Farrell at ten, and they when attrition and numbers are stacked in their favour, and in good territory then go wider to strike runners like Jonathan Joseph and Anthony Watson. But I am not convinced that is what Stuart Lancaster wants to play, will also be interesting to see what role Sam Burgess plays in this squad. Time will tell.
Player To Watch
Jonathan Joseph - With no Manu Tuilagi for the Six Nations this year, Joseph stepped in and scored try after try and impressed many people. They still have no Tuilagi currently but Joseph is the man in the shirt and on current form not convinced Tuilagi would play at thirteen anyway. Now Joseph now has the opportunity on the World stage.
Prediction - Semi Finalists. Can see England topping the group but coming unstuck at the semi final stage.
Australia
Twice World Champions, and this summer defeated World Champions New Zealand, so are they ready to become three time Champions? I see Australia facing similar selection posers as England, what is the best centre partnership, best half backs, best second, best back row combination?
They have a very talented player base but not convinced they know what there best team is, and not sure they have the forward power and defensive steel to make a serious tilt at the World Cup this time around.
Player To Watch
Israel Folau - Simply a rugby playing freak. His skill set is incredible and glides over the pitch which seems as if he is putting in minimum effort. Could easily play anywhere across the back four backs positions. Giving any space will light up the World Cup.
Prediction - I see them losing to England and also Wales in their final pool match and missing out on qualifying so predicting group stages is where the tournament ends.
Pool B
South Africa
Summary
Where is to start in Pool B than with Southern Hemisphere giants South Africa? The 1995 and 2007 Champions suffered disappointment four years ago as they lost 11-9 to Australia at the quarter-final stage, despite dominating the match, so will be looking to bounce back in a similar way to how they did that last time they left the tournament at the first knockout stage, by winning it. That is if they make the tournament at all. At the time of writing, South African political party the Agency for New Agenda (ANA) is taking the South Africa Rugby Union (SARU) to court over the quota of white/black players in the squad. South African coach Heyneke Meyer has said the squad does contain the 30% non-white players necessary, but ANA dispute this and are attempting to stop the team travelling to London by asking for the all players and coaches to have their passports held. Obviously racism and apartheid is still an extremely prevelant subject in South Africa, but from a rugby point of view, the fans want to see the best team out no matter what colour they are. This debate though is for another time, and we'll continue in the hope that off the field goings-on don't cloud what will be a great tournament.
Warm-Ups
As with the other major Southern Hemisphere sides, South Africa's Rugby World Cup Warm-Up came in the shape of the Rugby Championship, although they'll probably wish it hadn't. Three losses from three later in the shortened format of this year's competition and it's not a great base to launch a World Cup winning campaign for the Springboks. A last gasp 24-20 defeat in Australia preceded a similar 20-27 defeat at home to New Zealand, although the most worrying scoreline for South Africans will be the 25-37 deficit suffered at the hands of Argentina in Durban. In terms of results it is clearly not a great picture for the Boks, but they can cling onto the positives. The pack was praised throughout the tournament, led by their cornerstone 'Beast' Mtawarira, although breakdown discipline is sure to be a concern. Also, as can be seen from the scores, points-scoring was no problem for the South Africans, but defensively a lot of work needs to be done, especially inside the redzone.
The Squad
Coach Heyneke Meyer has named a strong and experienced squad on paper, boosted by the fitness of influential number eight Duane Vermeulen and captain Jean De Villiers. It means that seven of the squad will have played in three World Cups with a fit De Villiers joining Bryan Habana, JP Pietersen, Ruan Pienaar, Fourie du Preez, and brothers Bismarck and Jannie du Plessis in that list, meanwhile Victor Matfield and Schalk Burger will appear in their fourth. The big surprise in the Springbok squad is the inclusion of uncapped scrum half Rudy Paige, the Bulls player having not been in the Rugby Championship squad. Aside from that the squad selection was pretty straightforward for Meyer, and he is certainly helped by a number of players, both forwards and backs, being able to cover a range of positions.
Forwards - Willem Alberts, Schalk Brits, Schalk Burger, Lood de Jager, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi, Francois Louw, Frans Malherbe, Victor Matfield, Tendai Mtawarira, Trevor Nyakane, Coenie Oosthuizen, Adriaan Strauss, Duane Vermeulen.
Backs - Damian de Allende, Jean de Villiers (captain), Fourie du Preez, Bryan Habana, Zane Kirchner, Jesse Kriel, Pat Lambie, Willie le Roux, Lwazi Mvovo, Rudy Paige, Ruan Pienaar, JP Pietersen, Handre Pollard, Morne Steyn.
Player to Watch
In terms of the South African player to watch, there are plenty of obvious candidates, the experience from the likes of Burger, Matfield, De Villiers and Habana are not to be under-estimated, while the next generation looks exciting in the form of Eben Etzebeth and Handre Pollard, but another youngster is who I've picked out. Jesse Kriel was one of the Springboks to come out of the Rugby Championship with real credit, making his test debut in the first game against Australia and scoring a try, adding another against New Zealand and making it three starts from three against Argentina, playing at Outside Centre and on the Wing. With 17 appearances for the Vodacom Bulls in Super Rugby, and a Junior World Championship runner-up medal in his back pocket, the 21-year-old has experience even at such a young age. Kriel can play anywhere from 10 to 15, but I think the most likely outcome will be on the right wing, as Damian de Allende and De Villiers form a centre partnership, Pollard and Pat Lambie battle it out at fly-half, while Willie Le Roux and Bryan Habana are assured of their back three spots. Comfortable with the ball in hand and an accomplished footballer, the Cape Town product has the skill set and potential to set the International scene alight.
Prediction
Semi-Finals: The Springboks will have far too much for their Pool B opponents, but will face a tricky quarter-final against the runner-up from the group of death, Pool A, in the form of England or Wales assuming Australia top their Pool. I do think South Africa will have too much for them though, on their day, but with the prospect of New Zealand in the semi-finals, that will be as far as the Springboks can be expected to go.
Samoa
Summary
Samoa have a fairly basic record when it comes to the Rugby World Cup, making it a game beyond the pool stages in all three tournaments of the 90s, before being knocked out at the first stage in the subsequent three. Of course Samoa are never helped by the vultures, you could say, of New Zealand who pick up any Samoans that show an iota of potential, but the Pacific Islanders continue to provide a strong opposition to the Southern Hemisphere big three, and are always pushing the Northern Hemisphere sides that struggle to match them up front.
Warm-Ups
Like South Africa, the tier two Southern Hemisphere sides mainly used a tournament as a World Cup warm up, in their case the Pacific Nations Cup, with Samoa competing against their Pool B opponents Japan and the USA, as well as Fiji, Tonga and Canada. Samoa qualified second from the preliminary stage, after sneaking past USA 21-16, and Canada 21-20, as well as drawing with their final opponents 30-30, although they went on to lose 29-39 when it really mattered. The Samoa Pacific Nations Cup squad, however, was missing a number of English-based, experienced players such as Kahn Fotuali'i, and captain Ofisa Treviranus.
The Squad
Those missing players are all back in the 31-man World Cup squad though, and bring some much needed experience with them. Props Logovi'i Mulipola and Sakaria Taulafo bring 53 caps, locks Kane Thompson and Joe Tekori 32 apiece, and captain Treviranus 32 also. There is a strong Northern Hemisphere presence in the squad, with only three Samoan-based players and a single Super Rugby representative in the Hurricanes Motu Matu'u, after Rey Lee-Lo agreed to join Cardiff Blues.
Player to Watch
I did consider a 'family to watch' with Samoan brother Tusi, George and Ken Pisi set to line up at Fly-Half, Centre and Wing respectively, but I've opted for a newcomer to the international scene, Tim Nanai-Williams. Mainly a Sevens specialist, the utility back has represented both Samoa and New Zealand in the short-sided game, as well as making 77 Super Rugby appearances for the Chiefs over the last five years. As the brother of Ulster's Nick Williams and cousin of Sonny Bill Williams, he has plenty of experience to call on from the family, but with 136 Super Rugby points to his name he may not need it. Expect to see him at wing or full-back and look out for him when he's on the run at full pace.
Prediction
Quarter-Final: With South Africa set to walk the group, it really leaves Samoa battling it out with Scotland for the runner-up spot. It'll be a cracking and tense game when the two meet on Saturday 10th October in Newcastle, and although it's a tough call, if you put me on the spot I'll say Samoa. However, with Australia the likely quarter-final opponents, I think the first knockout stage is as far as we can expect to see the Samoans.
Scotland
Summary
Any Scotland fan of the right age will remember the pain of a 6-9 loss to England at Murrayfield in the semi-final of the 1991 World Cup. Gavin Hastings in particular will never forget his sliced kick from in front of the posts that could've drawn the Scots level. Since then, however, Scottish success at the World Cup has been hard to come by, with quarter-final defeats at every World Cup between 1991 and 2011, until they failed to make it out of the Pool Stages last time, losing out to Argentina. With little real Six Nations success in recent years, Scotland will be hoping to prove their doubters wrong next month.
Warm-Ups
Scotland have had a fairly successful pre-World Cup campaign, it must be said. A narrow loss to Ireland in Dublin was followed by a narrow victory over Italy in Turin, before the return game saw a crushing 48-7 win for the Scots as they crossed the line six times with a team that much more resembled the XV we expect to see at the World Cup. Especially encouraging was a brace apiece for wingers Sean Lamont and Tim Visser. Interesting from Scotland during the warm-ups were the debuts of WP Nel and John Hardie, born in South Africa and New Zealand, respectively, they qualify through heritage and residency and add to the pack going forward.
The Squad
The big news from the Scotland 31-man squad is, despite a man of the match, try scoring performance against Italy, John Barclay doesn't make the cut. The Scarlets flanker joins Blair Cowan as the back rowers that make way for Hardie and Josh Strauss, who will not actually be eligible to play for Scotland until the day after the tournament starts. The pros are obviously that Hardie and Strauss are good players, but with less than 80 minutes of international rugby been them, experience and chemistry with the rest of the team could be an issue. Aside from that, the squad has someway priced itself, the only slight concern being Sean Maitland's lack of fitness leaving Stuart Hogg as the only specialist full-back.
Player to Watch
Unlike with South Africa and Samoa, I am going to go for the fairly obvious choice as my player to watch. Finn Russell was one of the best players in the Pro12 last season, and led Glasgow to the title with a string of fantastic performances at outside half. Russell only got offered a full-time contract at Scotstoun last summer, after making his Scotland debut on the North America tour, but produced a number of crucial plays to ensure a home play-off, win that game and score a try in the Final. He also secured himself the Scotland number ten jersey during the 2015 Six Nations, and at just 22 this could be the start of a long career.
Prediction
Pool Stages: As I mentioned above, I believe it will come down to Samoa and Scotland to challenge for the runner-up spot, and unfortunately I think Samoa just have the edge this time round. However, Scotland have a younger side, with plenty of potential which, if they stick together, could become a strong unit in Japan 2019.
USA
Summary
United States of America have a fairly straightforward World Cup record, out in the Pool Stages at every tournament, except 1995 when they didn't qualify. They have, however, improved their performances in other competitions, going from the Churchill Cup to the Pacific Nations Cup, coming 2nd in the latter last season.
Warm-Ups
After a 5th placed finish at this year's Pacific Nations Cup, you could believe they were coming into the tournament with poor form, but with two narrow losses to Samoa and Tonga, and crucially a win against Pool B rivals Japan, USA had much to celebrate. Capitalising on that, they beat Canada away, 41-23, before a narrow loss to Harlequins 24-19.
The Squad
At the time of writing, USA haven't officially confirmed their World Cup squad, but on the basis the 31-man training squad won't change, it's the USA's strongest squad to date. With 13 players playing in Europe, including Samu Manoa at Toulon and Takydzwa Ngwenya at Biarritz, they have a strong, experienced core of full-time players, as well as a number of Sevens internationals, they'll look to play a fast-paced running game, but they will have to hope each player is having a good day to pull off their game plan.
Player to Watch
Am I biased as a Cardiff fan? Yes. So, my player to watch is soon to be Blues legend, Blaine Scully. The back three player has played 25 times for USA since his debut in 2011, scoring seven tries. After graduating from California University he played Sevens for two years, before signing for Leicester in 2013. After 35 appearances, and six tries, in two years, he will join up with former Eagles coach Billy Millard at the Cardiff Arms Park. A dynamic runner and good finisher, the Eagles will have to hope he can carry the team across the whitewash a few times.
Prediction
Pool Stages: If it's Samoa v Scotland for second, then it's USA v Japan for fourth. After a win at the Pacific Nations Cup and if they can keep players fit, then I believe the USA can beat Japan again on the big stage, and if they put a huge effort in, they could push for more points, but it will come as a big surprise that's for sure.
Japan
Summary
If you thought USA's World Cup record was straight forward, then Japan's is even easier. They've been knocked out of the Pool Stages at every World Cup, winning just one game, in 1991, and drawing two, one in each of the last two tournaments. They, like USA, have increased their quality of regular opposition by being promoted to the Pacific Nations Cup from the Asia Five Nations, and a run of good results now sees them ranked up above their American Pool B rivals, and even Italy.
Warm-Ups
After a 4th place finish in the Pacific Nations Cup, starting with a win against Canada, followed by narrow defeats to USA and Fiji, Japan have gone on to play a number of further warm-up games. Defeat to a World XV was followed by back-to-back wins over Uruguay, and they're still not done with a friendly against Georgia in Gloucester. With plenty of rugby under their belts, the Brave Blossoms' coach, Eddie Jones, will hope to have his team well drilled.
The Squad
Hands up who knows a lot about Japanese domestic rugby? Me neither, so I can't report in a lot of detail on the squad, however I can say that there's only three players playing outside Japan in the squad; Michael Leitch, Hendrik Tui and Fumiaki Tanaki plying their trade in Super Rugby. In terms of the rest of the players there is plenty of international experience, only three of the other 28 possessing under ten caps.
Player to Watch
Well, this is a tough one. The player I'll choose is 29 year-old full-back Ayumu Goromaru, who is already his country's top points scorer. With 505 points from 41 caps, the Yamaha Jubilo player's boot will be relied upon heavily to get Japan on the scoreboard as any point will be a crucial point for the Blossoms this World Cup.
I hope you have enjoyed the first preview for World Cup 2015, please share your thoughts on the predictions, on our website, Twitter Page or Facebook.
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