By Craig Muncey
October 10 2015

The big day is upon us, Wales guaranteed a quarter final spot from this very tough group, now go up against Australia, with the winner of this match getting a quarter final match against more than likely Scotland, or potentially Japan and then if yu win that one a game against France, Argentina or Ireland.  This side of the draw would be more advantageous than losing today, and then you come up against South Africa and then potentially New Zealand in the semi final, so is a massive game. Wales are on a 10 game losing streak against Australia, last 5 matches between the two teams the difference in scores have been less than 3 points, so is normally a tight affair, can Wales finally put this losing streak to bed? This article looks at the key battles and my prediction (I was not far out on my prediction for the English match, surprisingly).  

Team Selection

Warren Gatland has rung the changes, and has been very bold in his selections, Gareth Anscombe of the Cardiff Blues, comes in at full back, with Liam Williams back into the team on the wing, George North in the centre, Paul James and Sansom Lee given the task of trying to restore parity in the problematic area for Wales in this World Cup of the scrum. Luke Charteris comes in at lock and Justin Tipuric after some outstanding performances in the build up to the World Cup comes in at flanker.

Australia after a fantastic performance last weekend knocking out the hosts, have kept changes to a minimum, Drew Mitchell comes in on the wing, Dean Mumm at lock and Sean McMahon at flanker.

Key Battles

For Wales they need to get the scrum spot on, Paul James who has recovered from injury, is a seasoned prop and a good scrummager and Sansom Lee is highly regarded, Welsh hopes are that both are fully fit and ready to take on their direct opponents in Sekope Kepu and Scott Sio respectively.

The breakdown is going to be fascinating to watch, David Pocock has been immense this World Cup and especially at the breakdown, his partner in crime Michael Hooper is not available today, so Wales I feel have made the right selection in going with a twin jackal threat of Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric.  Australia ball carriers are decent but they do not have the huge physical powers of a Gorgodze, Picamoles, Vunipola and Vermaelen types, so Lydiate is not so required as much, so in my view a good selection.

The Australia backline has looked the most dangerous unit in the World Cup in my opinion, the speed of pass, running lines and accuracy of passing has been outstanding so a real danger to Wales, the decision to pick George North in the centre is a big call, he is inexperienced in that position, so with their dummy runners and angles a massive test for him.  Wales were limited in options at outside centre as only other really viable option was Tyler Morgan, and he too has very little experience at the top level.

Prediction

Wales have been very positive in selection, Gareth Anscombe at full back will be interesting to see how he performs, since coming to Wales has mainly played at 10, and now in a huge match, has been placed at 15.  However, he has experience of playing against the Australian players from his time with the Chiefs in Super Rugby, and he seems to have a big match temperament.  Expect Foley to test him early positionally, and a few high kicks with players such as Israel Folau bearing down on him.

I feel the bench for both teams as usual will play a big part in the outcome, Australia have the likes of Polotau-Nau, McCalman, Toomua and Beale to come on, to pick up the ball carrying and pace, Wales have Owens, Moriarty, Lloyd Williams and possibly Hook or Priestland dependant on how the match is going.  I like Moriarty on the bench for Wales, he is a big ball carrier and has an aggression in defence that may be needed, but I do feel the Australian bench is stronger and in particular in the front three replacements, I have a real concern about Aaron Jarvis coming on at loose head, up against Kepu or his replacement some point Greg Holmes.

Overall, looking at the two teams, I feel it will be a fantastic match, both teams want to play fast flowing rugby, but with the massive improvements Australia have made in their forward play under the tutelage of Mario Ledesma, plus some concerns over the fitness levels of the starting props Wales have, I feel Australia will hold their own in the set pieces, and that back line will then have the foundation to release that outstanding back line.

Australia to win by 9 points.