By Craig Muncey
October 17 2015

The day is upon us, knock out stages of the World Cup and our boys Wales have a date with destiny against South Africa. Both teams have suffered a loss getting to this stage, but lose today and your going home, out of the World Cup. This piece looks at the teams, and areas of the game I feel one team may have the edge over the other, and the article ends with my prediction on the outcome. I hope you enjoy!  

Teams

Wales - 15 G Anscombe, 14 A Cuthbert, 13 T Morgan, 12 J Roberts, 11 G North, 10 D Biggar, 9 G Davies, 1 G Jenkins, 2 S Baldwin, 3 S Lee, 4 L Charteris, 5 AW Jones, 6 D Lydiate, 7 S Warburton, 8 T Faletau. Bench K Owens, P James, T Francis, B Davies, J Tipuric, L Williams, R Priestland, J Hook.

South Africa - 15 W Le Roux, 14 JP Pieterson, 13 J Kriel, 12 D De Allende, 11 B Habana, 10 H Pollard, 9 F Du Preez, 1 T Mtawarria, 2 B Du Plessis, 3 F Malherbe, 4 E Etzebeth, 5 L De Jager, 6 F Louw, 7 S Burger, 8 D Vermeulen. Bench A Strauss, T Nyakane, J Du Plessis, PS Du Toit, W Alberts, R Pienaar, P Lambie, J Serfontein.

Ref W Barnes

Welsh team is as expected with the players available, decisions had to be made at 13, but Gatland has opted not to select James Hook or George North in this position and go with a player who on his short career to date, is a recognised outside centre in Tyler Morgan.  At loosehead prop, he has gone back to his trusted lieutenant in the 118 times capped Gethin Jenkins, who whenever doubts have rose in his starting position has always responded positively in his next performance.  Paul James is arguably a better scrummager, but Gatland has huge faith in Jenkins.  Gatland has also decided to being back the champion of the chop tackle, Dan Lydiate, with Justin Tipuric dropping to the bench.

South Africa have made 1 change from their starting 15 from the last match, JP Pieterson replacing Lwazi Mvovo on the wing.  Was talk that Victor Matfield maybe fit for this clash but that has not materialised, if had happened would of given Heyneke Meyer a decision to ponder with the recent performances of Lood De Jager.

Backs v Backs

The South African backline is very strong, the back three have three very good footballers, and in Habana have a proven try scorer.  No doubt they are going to try with little grubber kicks turn Alex Cuthbert around who is low on form and confidence and test him.  Already seen Du Preez and Pollard trying this tactic and Habana is very alert to these opportunities.  The two South African centres are inexperienced at international level, but in the Rugby Championship, proved they are dangerous players.  Kriel runs some great lines of support and is dangerous. De Allende has been excellent this World Cup, and has made the most of his opportunity in the side following the sad injury to Jean De Villiers.  De Allende is a strong player and his battle with our own hard man Jamie Roberts, will be fascinating to watch.  South African half backs will be Du Preez and Pollard.  Du Preez is a very clever tactical scrum half, keeping the forwards driving on, and his kicking from hand is outstanding.  When Pollard burst on the scene he looked liked would be a superstar, has not happened like that to date, but is a big strong 10, who stands very flat and takes it ot the opposition defensive line.

Wales backline has seen a number of changes due to injuries.  Anscombe did ok last week, and I am hoping that run out has given him confidence, I hope he gets into first and second receiver more this week as his distribution is very strong, and Wales need that.  Alex Cuthbert is struggling, and must be low on confidence, South Africa wll test him, but I am hoping the memories of his performance against South Africa in the summer of 2014 will ignite him.  That second test Cuthbert was outstanding and was his best performance in a Wales shirt.  Keep watching the DVD of that match Alex!  I am also still waiting for George North to show us his true potential in this World Cup and today there is not a better day to show us this.  Huge day for Tyler Morgan, who is highly rated by the coaching staff, Morgan has real ability, had a decent offload and is quick over a short distance.  With the half backs, Biggar and Davies will need to take control and make the right decisions.  I am hoping Biggar finds the performance he put in against England when he was simply world class that day.

Forwards v Forwards

South African forwards generate a huge power game and are a very physical side.  Front five have been excellent since that defeat against Japan, and in particular the second row who are real athletes and a huge asset in all aspects of the game.  Back row again very physical, Francois Louw is very strong at the break down and will be supported by the old war horse, Schalk Burger. Main ball carrier will be Duane Vermaelen, an excellent number 8.  If other teams are causing them issues in the pack their discipline can wane at times, so one for Wales to test.

Wales have had major issues at scrum time, last week in the first half early on, saw some improvements, but after that saw cracks breaking everywhere.  The scrum has to have some parity for Wales to compete today.  Second rows will have a huge battle today, already mentioned how good South Africans are in this area, but the Welsh pair of Charteris and Jones have been also excellent, Charteris defensively at mauls and his tackle count has been top drawer, and Alun Wyn Jones is one of the best locks in the world his all round game is brilliant as is his leadership qualities.  Welsh back row have played together many times, and the plan is for Lydiate to chop down the respective ball carrier, and then Warburton with support from Faletau and Jenkins win the breakdown battle.  Faletau will be the main ball carrier and apart from a few poor decisions, has had a very good World Cup.  Going to be an attritional battle upfront, and fascinating to watch.

Prediction

In thirty matches against South Africa, Wales have only won twice and have never won anywhere other than in Cardiff.  So history is against Wales, however, I am more confident playing South Africa this week than I was against Australia last week.  Wales do not have the same fear factor with South Africa as they have with Australia, and indeed in the last match against Wales and South Africa, Wales came out on top 12-6.

As always the battle will be won or lost upfront, South Africa have a huge pack and indeed when Willem Alberts comes on will be even bigger and more physical.  Wales have to battle hard at scrum time, and in the contact area have to sack the ball carrier and not let them get momentum and their pick and drive game going, Wales do have the players to do this, but is no doubt for Wales to succeed Dan Lydiate and Sam Warburton will need huge matches.  I also expect Gethin Jenkins and Scott Baldwin to have big games today in defence.

My prediction? I am going with a Wales win by 3 points.

Cymru am byth, come on boys.