By Chris Chaplin
January 15 2003

As the pool stages arrive at their conclusion it's time to contemplate the arrival of the self styled Welsh All Blacks at Welford Road on Saturday and whether they will remain the fly in Tigers Heineken Cup ointment. I suppose it's part of the magic of competitions such as the HEC that clubs like Neath can have such a pivotal role in the fortunes of the big money, star studded, participants and that is exactly the position in which this Welsh club finds itself.

To all intents and purposes this is a dead rubber as far as the All Blacks are concerned. They can't win the pool, the loss in Italy and draw against us at The Gnoll saw to that, and even if they beat Tigers on Saturday they're not going to qualify as best runners up.

For Tigers the rubber is very much alive as the job of qualification for the knockout stages is still only half done. History tells us that to proceed to the semi-finals of this competition a home draw in the Quarter finals is essential and with Toulouse and Leinster pretty much having booked their spots already, each being on 10 points, that leaves two home ties up for grabs. Llanelli, although not having one of their better seasons domestically, look a different proposition in this competition and will probably win at Glasgow giving them 10 points as well, so that's spot number three gone and as I've a sneaky feeling that Gloucester might just have a famous victory at Thomond Park this weekend, they could also be on 10 points come Saturday teatime. Tigers need to beat Neath and secure 11 points to achieve a vital home tie.

Neath are not a glamour team by any stretch of the imagination even in Welsh Rugby terms, they have a small squad by Premiership standards and aside from ex Lions Alan Bateman and Hooker Williams only Lee Jarvis and Brett Sinkinson are names that will be well known to most English rugby followers.

With just a sprinkling of imports in the form of flanker Alfie Mocelutu, Tongan centre Tiueti and the aforementioned Sinkinson this is pretty much a Welsh grown outfit, with many of the squad making their way to the big time direct from Welsh schools rugby and minor local sides, there are a few who, like Alan Bateman and Williams, had ill starred flirtations with clubs such as Richmond at the beginning of the professional era but they are now rehabilitated with Williams having been capped.

I spite of all this Neath finished as the highest placed Welsh club in their pool of the Celtic league and thanks partly to the boot of Lee Jarvis despatched their more glamorous neighbours from Cardiff to win a place in the Celtic Cup Final against Munster.

All this is somewhat at odds with their upset in Italy at the hands of Calvisano when they were undone by an Italian second half charge of which Tigers had a taste last weekend. Following that game coach Lyn Jones made wholesale changes to the starting line up with only Brett Sinkinson retaining his place in the pack, even though Wales Hooker Barry Williams had scored a try on that fateful day and the All Blacks pack had pretty much had the Italian eight under the cosh, forcing them to concede a penalty try subsequently giving Cardiff's vaunted pack a real going over in the Celtic Cup semi-final..

Their latest exploits against our friends from South West France was a close run thing with Mocelutu and winger Gareth Morris breaching the French defence for tries with Jarvis adding the extras and three penalties to edge a close run contest. Once again the Neath pack won the day and this is clearly their strongest suit as we saw on that drenching October night when our favourite official, Mr McHugh, denied us the extra point by incorrectly penalising Franck for illegal use of the feet just as the ball, which was being held by a Welsh hand, popped out at Franck's feet. At least McHugh is consistent as I saw him make the same error in the later Edinburgh/Toulouse game.

I guess that internationals Duncan Jones and Barry Williams will form the nucleus of the All Black's front row with Adam Jones seemingly first choice to join them in a tough uncompromising combination. Club Captain Gareth Llewllyn and Andy Newman seem a popular combination at lock with Steve Martin not appearing on the bench recently. From what I've seen this pair can make a mess of line out possession and will need to be contained in their spoiling tactics.

The strongest back row seems to be the abrasive Alfie Mocelutu, who scored against Beziers, with import Sinkinson, who I think is one of the main dangermen, and Steve Tandy, although Bonner-Evans is a decent sort as well having played for Wales at all levels without securing a full cap. These are very dangerous combinations, particularly in the loose, and I see our half backs having a bit of a torrid time if service is not sharp and accurate.

At scrum half first choice is usually Andy Moore who aside from being capped had a successful excursion playing for Treviso in the year they won the Italian Championship and although he lost his place to part timer Horgan following the Calvisano debacle I reckon he'll be starting on Saturday and partnering the superb Lee Jarvis who we know in the past has been the subject of covetous intent by Deano. For my money on his day Jarvis is pretty much the complete #10, intelligent, quick and a reliable "Golden Boot" in all departments, given our difficulties in this area he'll need fair and courteous attention from our back row if he is not to undo us big time.

Without massive cover in the centre Tiueti and Storey are pretty much fixtures with Tiueti true to his Tongan background in being an uncompromising character, however I find it hard to believe that the still wonderful Alan Bateman will not make an appearance, even if it's for only 40 minutes, for still in the late twilight of his illustrious career he is a player to savour, those superb talents are still there, perhaps a few yards slower than in his hay day but alone worth the ticket.

On the wings we could see the pacy Gareth Morris who has plenty of speed when he turns on his, presumably coal powered, after burners and likely to be partnered by either Marsden or Kevin James. The back line is completed by Adrian Durston who has a bit of pace and made a try coming into the line against Beziers.

All in all a workmanlike set up but one which is full of passion and intent and has, this season, punched above it's weight. They've had some encouragement in beating Cardiff and Beziers and coming very, very close to adding Tigers' scalp to their collection of famous pelts and if our pack does not dominate the Welsh eight and constrain the ambitions of the half backs I see difficulties, especially if discipline deteriorates and Jarvis is given the opportunity to strut his stuff.

So to Tigers.

Clearly a reasonable result for us in Italy last weekend although from the reports that I've read we again squandered a number of scoring opportunities with careless and/or slack execution in the final stages of the move as well as conceding three tries through our errors rather than the opposition's endeavour.

This is another must win game for Tigers and surely Deano will not try anything fancy, relying instead on as full a strength pack as is available. I think the front row will be a real contest with the Neath trio looking particularly strong in the scrummaging department and I would expect Garf to start with West this time to keep it tight during the opening exchanges. Johnno and BK should be able to overcome the Llewllyn/Newman cabal provided that we don't over use the long ball at the throw in. I know that our opponents expect us to target Johnno and BK but the reason for that is that they're a world class combination, so why not let the opposition try to take them on rather than use them as some kind of decoy for risky throws to the back of the line, which should be the exception rather than the rule that they have become.

For my money a back row of Backy/Corry (if recovered from injury)/Josh is just about as good a trio as we could hope for and I really can't see the All Blacks besting them. Domination will be central here as we must keep Jarvis from playing his chosen game.

To the problem area then. I suppose Harry will start after his performance in Italy but in Moore he'll have a very accomplished opponent with international and Barbarians experience so he'll need to be precise. Presumably if Sam is fit he'll return at 10 and it is to be hoped that Harry gives him a chance with some good service and that Tierney rather than Jamie is on the bench. Otherwise I guess it'll be Rod at 12 (I'd still prefer Gelders, I hear he was pretty solid against Calvisano) and Ollie at outside centre, against whom it would be hard to argue.

I must confess to being confused at Stimmo being on the wing and Geordan at 15 "to give him full rein" is that code for trying to score from the boondocks? Stimmo is the more complete 15 and should be there and Geordan should be at his best spot on the wing. With Fred fit again I hope he'll be used to soften up the opposition with Boothy or Raynor then getting a run out if play breaks down after 60 minutes.

Like most of the Welsh teams having constrained resources Neath have little option other than to play a limited gameplan and I expect therefore that the Neath forwards will come out with all guns blazing and look to pressurise us into giving penalties for Jarvis to kick, just as the Scarlets did last year, a strategy which very nearly succeeded then as it did when pursued by Neath at the The Gnoll in October. We must therefore play smart rugby and keep them penned back in their own 22, so whomsoever is at 10 must have their kicking boots on or get the ball to Stimmo and Geordan who should be available in a tight shape. The temptation to throw the ball wide in the early stages will, in my view, be too risky an option especially if Alan Bateman is in the centre.

The outcome? Well assuming we don't underestimate these Hakaless All Blacks and select and play intelligently with as full a strength side as is available and keep our game precise and tight as a drum I think we'll win and secure a home quarter final. Don't expect an easy game though it could well be a lot closer than it looks on paper