Lightning Doesn't Strike Three Times - or Does It?

By Chris Chaplin
January 22 2003

It's that time of the year when the Tigers traditionally trudge down to the Stoop to take on the multi-coloured ones in the National Cup. So what on earth will happen this time? Supporters of Tigers and Quins must be starting to think that the draw for the Cup might just as well exclude their teams and just accept that they're destined to meet, as for the third year in a row we meet up for a Cup match in the shadow of HQ.

True we gave a lack lustre Quins a bit of a doing when they came to Welford Road back in the early days of the season and they also found Tigers too much for them in both league encounters last term, but as we know to our eternal chagrin when it comes to the Cup at the Stoop it's a whole new bag of coloured spangles that we find.

It is worth noting that Quins, although currently seventh in the ZP on 29 points, have a game in hand over Tigers and so respective league form this year is not that different, for if they converted their outstanding fixture (against Bristol at the Memorial Ground) into a five point victory they'd be to within a point of Tigers. Quins have also started to build something of a fortress mentality at The Stoop where they have not been defeated by an English side since the 14 September when they were beaten by Leeds.

So not the basket case that they were last season, strong at home and although the excellent Laurent Gomez is sidelined with a broken bone in his leg, the superb Keith Wood (I am not going to use the T word) continues to be plagued by injuries and Winters has a long term Achilles problem they do have Luger and Nick Greenstock back, so all is not gloom on the injury front either.

The question is can Tigers legendary mental toughness overcome the fact that on two visits to the Stoop in the Cup over the past two years Quins have knocked them out of the competition on each occasion. To my mind at least the first defeat was due to missing players, a rather strange selection in the scrum and rank bad play, but last year, as we will painfully remember, it was all decided by the last kick of the match when Paul Burke took the conclusive penalty (which in itself was dubious) from a point five metres nearer the post than the referee's mark, an act of skulduggery that was missed by the officials and enabled the kick to scrape over. Strange that I don't recall any "Paul Burke You Cheat" posts, perhaps Tigers' supporters are more pragmatic about such things and less inclined to sour grapes than some.

Anyway to the present. With Gomez misfortune ex Sarrie Jon Dawson has been drafted in to the front row partnering nine times capped Samoan Tani Fuga and the ever young Big Jase. By all accounts these three gave the Bristol trio a bit of a lesson in scrummaging when they beat them 26-17 during Quins last first team outing. Since when the first fifteen have been untroubled by the diversions of European games.

Similarly Bill Davison (another ex Sarrie - there are a few of them at The Stoop) and Alex Codling, who for my money is one of the best ball stealing locks around at present and must surely soon get his chance to move up the pecking order at England level and add to his handful of caps, had a good day in the lineout and overall I think it fair to say that the Quins front five somewhat irritated the Bristolians with Mr Archer having to take a not unfamiliar rest on the sidelines as a consequence.

In the back row is, I think, the reason for Quins recovery - Andre Vos. He's somehow galvanised them and it's not hard to see why he won 33 caps with the Springboks.

On Saturday he'll meet up with Stimmo who, when playing for England against the Springboks in Pretoria in 2000, was denied a try courtesy of an illegal tackle by Vos, which Kiwi Referee Hawke passed to local Video Ref. Mark Lawrence for adjudication. Lawrence, unsurprisingly, came down on the side of Vos. Hawke subsequently confirming that had the video option not been available he would have given a penalty try. So our Tim won't have happy memories to share with Vos.

Mr Vos is ably abetted by Tony Diprose, another ex Sarrie, (why on earth did they let him go?) this lad is a good footballer and sometimes when I've seen him in open play it's easy to forget that he's a forward, in fact rather like Backy his athleticism is more akin to a centre on such occasions. Sanderson was missing from the line up when they played last but if fit he'll add even more to the back row's undoubted skill, which I reckon makes them one of the top six back row combinations in the league.

On paper then a pretty good pack with grunt, mobility and just a smidgen of aggression when required! When they came to Welford Road Tigers' pack nevertheless gave them a real mauling but it must be remembered that on that occasion they were without Vos, or Codling with utility forward Tiatia performing the hooking duties. I'm not sure of the relative merits of Fuga vs Tiatia but the presence of Vos and Codling will certainly make a difference in the lineout and the loose. Mind you Quins strongest line up got pushed about by the Bath pack down at the Rec., recently in spite of Bath's eight not reckoned to be their strongest suit this season. Doubts then, in my mind anyway as to whether the Quins pack will be equal to the task.

At half back Duncombe seems first choice 9 with Winger Matt Moore, Powell and Scott Bemand also making appearances in the shirt and although young Nick Duncombe has had, in extremis admittedly, a brief opportunity at International level, I can't really say that he's a stand out scrum half yet, rather like Harry Ellis perhaps one for the future, although again like Harry he's got on the score sheet, in Duncombe's case with four tries from his nine appearances this season, so he's worthy of watching, particularly around the fringes when near to our line.

Paul Burke obviously has precedence at #10 and indeed it is thanks to his twelve points out of the seventeen scored against Leeds in the last round that Quins progressed. Although he is a true "Golden Boot" I can't say that he is as complete a fly half as some and I sometimes wonder if, like Everitt at Irish and Mercier at Gloucester, he creates enough for his centres, given his high kicking ratio to passes received.

With Nick Greenstock again fit I'd expect to see him partner Will Greenwood in the centre. Greenstock, although strangely only capped four times for England, is a perfect foil for Greenwood, he's one of those players who can spot a gap and has that bit of pace and footwork to exploit the smallest fissure in the opposing defence through which Greenwood can then wriggle his lanky frame.

On the wings Luger is back and as we all know he's a deadly finisher, but is he back to full match fitness? Will he have part of his mind on avoiding injury ahead of the Six Nations? Come teatime on Saturday I suspect we'll have the answers.

On the other wing will probably be either Ben Gollings or Rob Jewell. Gollings certainly has the pace but perhaps because of his 7's credentials his defence can be found wanting and I have to confess that I do like Rob Jewell, I've seen him play for Quins and during his time at Kingsholm. While he may not quite have Gollings' outright speed he's more of an all round player for me, but as I said I'm prejudiced.

Nathan Williams at full back. now here's a classy player going forward and as he was the top try scorer when at Queensland Reds he obviously does so with some effect. Perhaps not the greatest defensive full back, he looks a bit vulnerable when the ball gets behind him, but a real threat in attack.

So then can Tigers at last prevail over Quins, in the blasted Cup and at The Stoop? Well of course than can, the question is will they?

I guess that if you lined up the two teams likely to play on Saturday and compared them player for player, aside from Leonard and Luger , Tigers would come out ahead however Mark Evans seems to have established something of an Esprit de Corps this season, which as we all know is an important factor, especially in big matches.

With a front row of Freshwater/West and Franck I think honours would be pretty much even in the scrummaging stakes and would give the Tigers trio a distinct edge in the loose. At the lineout any combination of a back to his best Johnno coupled with either BK or Deacon should have enough class to deal with Alex Codling's threat, well most of the time anyway. At the back of the line however I just prefer any combination of Backy/Josh/Corry and MadEye. So all in all I think that in set pieces, provided we make the right choices at the lineout, we'll have the edge, particularly following their top rate performance against Neath, which showed the fallacy of not starting with Josh who has been our best and most consistent player this season and should be start at 7. The prospect of Corry and MadEye following restarts would give the Quins something to think about!

At half back if Harry and Oz are still injured Tierney will presumably start with Vesty at 10 and if the pack gets the possession I think it will then the half backs should get the backs moving. I thought it interesting in the Neath game that the forwards seemed disposed to hold on to the ball rather than release the backs which were in their nineteenth different combination of the season, showing five personnel or positional changes from the Calvisano game a week earlier. Kafer and Ollie will probably rejoin their partnership which is the most enduring in the back division this season having started eleven times. Stimmo and Geordan hopefully will play Full Back/Wing and be joined by Fred who's defence is superior to the other wing options and will be needed against Luger in particular.

So will we at last win at the Stoop in the Cup?

If, as I think will be the case, the pack dominates the set pieces and the loose then with tight play around the fringes they should prevail. Discipline will be all of course as Burke will otherwise again kick us to death and under no circumstances should we kick ball to Luger, Burke or Williams when they are coming forward onto the kick, the ball must always be behind them, forcing them to turn for Burke will want to comfortably sit in the pocket and kick into our 22. So discipline, precise kicking and patience, keeping the ball in hand while building the phases is essential and then I reckon we can finally lay our Cup Nemesis to rest.

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