By Chris Chaplin
February 5 2003

No it's not Johnno but an apparition that passed across my Crystal Ball as I mused on how the season could turn out. As it stands I reckon there are five teams in with a shout of the two play-off places to meet Glaws at Twickenham. Glaws I believe are pretty much home and hosed unless there's a disaster. They're on 56 points and their remaining home games are against Bath (5 point win) Falcons (5 point win) Quins (5 point win) and us of course where I hope they'll be denied even a point.

They have three away fixtures left and here the outlook is a little less certain, although they do travel a bit better these days. These fixtures are: Bristol (I think they'll lose a close contest down there but get a bonus point) Sale (5 point win - they'll destroy the Sale pack) and Leeds, where again I think they'll come unstuck but get a point. So that sees Glaws Premiership Champions on 75 points. I know, I know they'll not be Champions but we all know they will really, they just won't have the pot.

At the moment Sale are second with 48 points and for me they have the hardest run in.
They have three home games against: Leeds, which I think they'll lose to the Tykes' pack. Glaws , ditto and Wasps, ditto again. They have four away fixtures. Quins, well I don't see them undoing the Stoop home record. Tigers, ditto again. Saints and again and Sarries where I wouldn't be surprised to see them steal a narrow 4 point win. I know the Sales supporters will be up in arms but it's only a bit of fun - honest!! So that would Sale end on 52 points.

Leeds are currently third on 43 points. They have too have just three home fixtures but four away ties. At home they've Falcons and after last week Falcons, I think may well narrowly win this with Tykes getting a point. Quins (4 points - they'll out muscle the Quins pack) Gloucester, they won't beat Glaws unless they're winding down by then, but I don't think so; no points there.

The four away fixtures are at Sale, where their pack will again be too strong and so a 4 point win at Haywood Road. Irish, tricky one at the MadStad I reckon, no points there either. Tigers - say no more! Finally they meet the Saints and again no points I fear. So that's Leeds on 56 points

Wasps have a nice soft landing with four home games against Irish (4 point win) Falcons (4 point win) Bath (5 point win) and Quins (4 point win). The first of their away fixtures on 16 March is at Vicarage Road where I think they'll perhaps get a losing bonus point with the same outcome at Bristol. I think they'll prevail over Sale though and pick up another 4 points in the process. So that's Wasps in the clubhouse with 62 Points.

Saints are still just about in it unless they lose to Sarries this weekend, which I don't think they will. They too have a four home tie run in against Sarries (4 point win) Bristol (a 5 pointer this time) Sale ( another 4 points) and Leeds (4 more for our pals at Franklins Gardens)

Away from home they have Bath (can't see anything but 4 points at least) Falcons (I don't think they'll beat them up yonder so no points there) and finally Quins, where following an earlier example by Tigers they'll get a 4 point win. Saints on 54 points then.

So there we are :
Gloucester Champions on 74
Wasps on 62
Leeds on 56
Saints on 54
Sale on 52

Is somebody missing!!!??? Oh of course Tigers.

Well if we win all our remaining games (as per Oz) but fail to get any bonus points we'd finish on 67 points and in second place. Should we, by some miracle, start to score boatloads of tries and run in with a stream of 5 pointers then we'd finish upsides the Champions also on 74 unless they get a losing bonus point off us at Kingsholm and then they'd be top by a single point. If we "just" win all the home fixtures with 4 point wins we'll have 55 points and be fourth - close but no cigar, so in this scenario we've got to win at least two of our remaining three away games.

What do I reckon? Hmmmm!

We too have four home ties in the run in. Firstly against Bristol which we should surely be able to win well (5 points) Sale? I don't really see them being able to live with our pack so another good 5 point opportunity. Leeds will be close but still a win and another 4 points.

Finally Irish. Well we can't lose the last home match can we and Mr Venter will be busy packing his cases for sunnier climes, so another good chance to avenge the MadStad with 5 points. Of the three away fixtures those at Falcons and Quins should be within our grasp even though Falcons looked much better against Quins but only 4 points from each I'm afraid.

The finale - Glaws at Kingsholm. Well if anyone can beat 'em there it's Tigers, for unless something really strange happens in the meantime when we go to Gloucester (well I'm already here of course - but you know what I mean) we shall have been the last team to defeat them at home in September 2002.

It could just be that we'll turn up beat them with four tries and by denying them a losing bonus point finish top. Sadly I don't think that'll happen but it could be the difference between our finishing second and third if things have not gone well and the Glaws supporters would prefer not to meet us at Twickenham so they want us out of the play-offs or at worst third.

The Mystic Meg forecast?

Glaws - 74 Tigers - 70 Wasps - 62.

Tigers beat Glaws at Twickenham and a fifth successive Championship pot is secured. Well that's what the record books would show anyway!

By the way - this is only an old Tiger's musings as he gently nods in his chair with the Winter Sun gently warming his cold old bones (if you'd been at Bath yours would be cold too!) I expect that young Whipper - Snapper TJS will have his calculator out to correct the sums - good lad TJS, good lad. Now where's my tea and biscuits??